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基地系列:基地前奏|Prelude to Foundation

第三章|Chapter 3

属类： 双语小说 【分类】魔幻小说 -[作者: 艾萨克-阿西莫夫] 阅读：[10176]
《基地前奏》 在《基地与地球》中广袤荒凉的星际旅程之后,《基地前奏》将镜头拉回到基地三部曲开场之前几十年,繁华的帝国之都川陀。开创整个基地故事根基.故事的时间线来到《基地》的几十年前，彼时的哈里·谢顿还未开创出完整的心理史学，只是发表了一篇论文。但正是这篇关乎可以预言未来的论文将谢顿带上一段逃亡冒险之旅。
《 字+字- 行+行- 页+页- 字+字- 行+行- 页+页- 》
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谢顿一点也不相信能见到皇上。在他想来，自己顶多只能跟某个官位四五等、自称代表皇上发言的官员见面。

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究竟有多少人见过皇上？亲眼见到，而非透过全息电视？有多少人见过真实的、有血有肉的皇上？这个皇上从不离开皇宫御苑，而他，谢顿，此时正踩在这片土地上。

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答案几乎趋近于零。两下五百万个住人世界，每个世界的居民至少十亿——在这数万兆的人口中，有多少人曾经或将会目睹这位活生生的皇帝？一千人？

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又有谁会在乎呢？皇帝只不过是帝国的代表，就像“星舰与太阳”国徽一样，却远不及后者那么普遍与真实。如今代表帝国的，是遍布银河各个角落的战士与官吏；是他们变成人民身上的重担，而不是皇帝本人。

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因此，当他被引进一间不大不小、装潢豪奢的房间，看见一个年轻人坐在附窗凹室的一张桌角上，一只脚碰着地，另一只脚搁在桌缘摇晃，谢顿不禁纳闷怎么会有这样的官员以这么温和的眼光望着自己。他自己反复地体验过的一个事实，那就是政府官员——尤其是皇下身边当差的——总是显得十分严肃，仿佛将整个银河的重量担在自己肩上。而且似乎越是不重要的官员，表情就越是严肃、越是凶恶。

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那么，此人就可能是个官位很高的大官。他真要握的权力有如灿烂的阳光，因而不必利用一脸的阴霾面对问题。

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谢顿不知道该表现得多么受宠若惊，但他感到自己最好保持缄默，让对方先开口。

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那位官员说：“我相信你就是哈里·谢顿，那个数学家。”

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谢顿以最简单的方式答道：“是的，阁下。”便继续等待。

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年轻人挥了挥手臂：“应该说‘陛下’才对，不过我痛恨繁文缛节。我总是在繁文缛节里打转，这使我厌烦透顶。现在没旁人在场，所以我要放纵一下，把一切繁文缛节抛到脑后。坐下来，教授。”

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对方讲到一半，谢顿便发觉对方正是克里昂大帝一世，这使他感到有点喘不过气来。皇上本人（现在看来）与新闻中经常出现的正式全息肖像有几分相似，不过全息像中的克里昂总是穿得雍容华贵，似乎比本人高大一些、尊贵一点．而且面孔冷漠，毫无表情。

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如今他出现在谢顿面前，他的庐山真面目却显得相当平凡。

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谢顿一动也不动。

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皇上微微皱了皱眉头。他平常颐指气使惯了，此时虽想放弃这种特权，至少是暂时放弃，却仍以专横的口吻说：“喂，我说‘坐下来’。那张椅子，快点。”

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谢顿默默坐下，他甚至迨“遵命，陛下”也说不出口。

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克里昂微微一笑：“这样好多啦。现在我们可以像两个同胞一样交谈，毕竟，除去一切繁文缛节，我们的关系就是这样。啊。你说是不是？”

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谢顿小心翼翼地答道：“假如皇帝陛下喜欢这么说，那一定没错。”

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“噢，别这样，你为什么如此小心谨慎？我想要以平等的身份和你交谈，这么做令我高兴，你就顺着我吧。”

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“遵命，陛下。”

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“只要简单一句‘遵命’就行了，我真没办法令你接受吗？”

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克里昂瞪着谢顿，谢顿觉得那双眼睛充满生气与兴味。

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最后，皇上总算再度开口：“你看来不像个数学家。”

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谢顿终于能露出笑容：“我不知道数学家应该像什么样子，皇帝陛……”

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克里昂举起一只手来表示警告，谢顿赶紧把这个尊称咽下去。

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克里昂说：“我认为数学家应该满头白发，或许还留着络腮胡，年纪当然有一大把。”

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“但即使是数学家，也总有年轻的时候。”

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“可是那时他们都默默无闻，等到他们的名声传遍全银河的时候，他们就是我所描述的那种模样。”

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“只怕我没什么名气。”

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“但你曾在此地举行的会议上演讲。”

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“许多人都上了台，有些比我还要年轻，受到注意的却只有少数。”

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“你的演讲显然吸引了我一些官员的注意。根据我的了解，你相信预测未来是可能的。”

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谢顿突然感到一股倦意。似乎不断有人误解他的理沦，也许他根本不该发表那篇论文。

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他说：“其实并不尽然，我得到的结果要狭隘得多。许多系统都会出现一种情形，那就是在某些条件下会产生混沌现象。这就代表说，对于某个特殊的起点，我们不可能预测后来的结果。甚至一些相当简单的系统都是这样，而系统越复杂，就越有可能变得混沌。过去我们一直假定，像人类社会这么复杂的东西，会在很短时间之内变成混沌系统，因此不可预测。然而我做到的则是证明，在研究人类社会时，有可能选择一个起点，并做出一组适当的假设，以便压抑混沌效应，使得预测未来变成可能。当然不是完整的细节，而是大致的趋势；并非绝对确定，只是可以计算其中的几率。”

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一直仔细聆听的景帝，这时问道：“可是，这不正意味着你说明了如何预测未来吗？”

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“还是那句话，并不尽然。我证明了理论上的可能性，但仅止于此。想要进一步探究，我们必须真正选择一个正确的起点，做出一组正确的假设，然后找出在有限时间内完成计算的方法。在我的数学论证中，完全没提到应该如何进行这些。即使我们全部能做到，顶多也只能估算出几率。这和预测未来并不相同，它只是猜测今后可能发生的事件。每个成功的政治人物、商人，或是从事任何行业的人，都必须能够对未来做出估计，而且估计得相当准，否则他们不会成功。”

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“他们并未用到数学。”

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“是的，他们凭借的是直觉。”

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“只要掌握适当的数学工具，任何人都有办法估算几率，不必非得那些少数具有优异直觉的成功人听不可。”

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“说对了，但我只是证明这个数学分析是可能的，并未证明它实际上是可行的。”

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“一件事既然可能，又怎会不切实际呢？”

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“理论上，我可以去访问银河中每一个世界，和每个世界上的每个人打招呼。然而完成这项工作需要很长的时间，远超过我一生的寿命。即使我能长生不死，新一代出生的速率也大于我访问老一辈的速率。更重要的是，许多老一辈在我来得及访问他们之前便会死去。”

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“在你有关未来的数学理论中，也遇到过类似的情况？”

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谢顿迟疑了一下，然后继续说：“这个数学计算或许要花太长的时间才能完成，即使我们有一台跟宇宙同样大的计算机，以超空间速度运作也于事无补。在获得任何答案时，岁月早已流逝多年，情势已发生巨大变化，足以使得这个答案变得毫无意义。”

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“过程为什么不能简化呢？”克里昂以尖锐的语调问道。

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“皇帝陛下，”谢顿感到随着答案越来越不合胃口，皇上的口气变得越来越正式，自己便以更正式的方式响应。“想想科学家处理次原子粒子的方式。那些粒了数量十分庞大，每个都以随机、不可预测的方式运动或振动。但是这个混沌的底层藏有一种秩序，所以我们才能创立量子力学，用以回答所有我们知道该如何问的问题。而在研究社会现象时，我们将人类摆在次原子粒子的地位，不同的是此时还多了一项变因，那就是人类的心灵。粒子以无心的方式运动，人类则不然：若想将心灵中各种态度与冲动考虑在内，会使复杂度增加太多，令我们根本没有时间顾及到各方面。”

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“心灵会不会和粒子的无心运动一样，也存在一个底层的秩序呢？”

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“或许吧。根据我的数学分析，任何事物之下必定都藏仃秩序，不论表面上看来多么杂乱无章。可是要如何才能找m出这些底层的秩序，它却完全没有提示。想想看——两千五百万个世界，每一个都有整体的特征与文化，每一个都和其他世界大不相同，每一个都至少包含十亿人口，其中每个人拥有一个独立的心灵，而所有这些世界都以数不清的方式与组合在进行互动！不论心理史学分析在理论上多么可能，却难以有什么实际上的应用。”

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“你所谓的‘心理史学’是什么意思？”

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“我将对未来的理论性几率估算称为心理史学。”

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皇上突然起身，大步走向房间另一端，然后一个转身，大步走回来，停在仍坐着的谢顿面前。

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“站起来！”他命令道。

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谢顿赶紧起立，抬头望着比自己高几厘米的皇帝，勉强让目光保持沉稳。

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克里昂终于开口：“你的这个心理史学……假如它能变得实际行，会有很大的用处，是不是？”

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“显然会有极大的用处。若能知道未来有些什么，即使是以最概略性、最几率性的方式，也能为我们的行动提供一个崭新的、绝佳的指导，这是人类从来未曾掌握的。可是，当然……”他突然住口。

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“怎么样？”克里昂不耐烦地问。

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“嗯，情况似乎是这样的，除了少数决策者之外，心理史学分析的结果必须对大众保密。”

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“保密！”克里昂高声惊叫。

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“这很明显，让我试着解释一下。假如我们完成一个心理史学分析。并将结果公之于世，人类的各种情绪与反应必将立刻受到扭曲。这样一来，心理史学分析就会变得毫无意史．因为它根据的是在对未来不知情的情况下，众人所产生的情绪与反应。您了解我的话吗？”

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皇上突然眼睛一亮，哈哈大笑几声：“太好了！”

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他伸手拍了拍谢顿的肩膀，令谢顿的身子轻轻晃了一下。

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“你这个人，你看不出来吗？”克里昂说，“难道你看不出来吗？这就是你的用处。你根本不需要预测未来，只要选择一个未来——一个好的未来、一个有用的未来。然后做出一种预测，让所有人类的情绪和反应发生变化，以便实现你预测的那个未来。与其预测一个坏的未来，不知制造一个好的未来。”

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谢顿皱起眉头：“我懂得您的意思，陛下，但这同样是不可能的事。”

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“不可能？”

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“嗯．至少是不切实际。您看不出来吗？如果我们不能从人类的情绪和反应出发，不能预测这些因素将导致的未来，那么同样无法反其道而行之。我们不能从一个选定的未来出发，再预测会导致这个结果的人类情绪和反应。”

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克里昂显得相当沮丧，紧紧抿着嘴唇。“那么，你的论文呢？……你是不是管它叫论文？……它又有什么用呢？”

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“那只是个数学论证。它提出一个令数学家感兴趣的结论，但我从未想到会有任何实际用途。”

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“我发觉这实在可恶。”克里昂气呼呼地说。

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谢顿微微耸了耸肩，他现在更加确定，自己根本不该发表那篇论文。假如皇上产生一个念头，认为他成了别人愚弄的对象，自己会有什么样的下场呢？

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事实上，克里昂看来像是快要有这样的念头了。

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“不过话说回来，”他说，“假如你对未来做出一些预测，不论是否在数学上站得住脚，但根据那些了解大众趋向的政府官员判断，它们就是会带来有用反应的预测。你认为如何？”

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“您为何需要由我做这件事？政府官员自己就能做这些预测，根本不必假手中间人。”

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“政府官员来做不会那么有效。他们偶尔的确会发表一些这类声明，可是民众不一定相信他们。”

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“为什么会相信我？”

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“你是个数学家，你会计算出未来的趋向，而不是……不是凭直觉——如果可以这样说的话。”

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“可是我并没有。”

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“谁会知道呢？”克里昂眯起眼睛望着他。

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接下来是短暂的沉默。谢顿感到自己中计了，如果皇上直接对他下令，他能拒绝吗？若是拒绝的话，他或许将遭到监禁或处决。当然不会没有审判，可是面对一个专制的官僚体制，尤其是银河大帝国的皇帝指挥之下的极权官僚体制。想要获得公平市判是难上加难的一什事。

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最后，他终于答道：“这样行不通。”

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“为什么？”

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“如果要我做出一些含糊的一般性预测，它必须等到我们这一代，甚至下一代死后多年才有可能实现，那么我们也许可以蒙混过去。可是，反之，民众同样不会在意。对于一两个世纪之后才会发生的重大事件，他们是不可能关心的。”

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“为了获得成果，”谢顿继续说，“我必须预测一些结果较为明确的事件，一些近在眼前的变故，只有这种预测才能获得大众的回应。不过迟早——也许不会迟只会早——其中一项预测不会实现，我的利用价值将立刻结束。这样一来，您的声望也将随之消失。更糟的是，以后再也不会有人支持心理史学的发展，即使未来的数学进展能将它改良到接近实用的程度，它也不会再有大显身手的机会。”

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克里昂猛然坐下，对着谢顿皱起眉头。“你们数学家能做的就是这个吗？坚持各种的不可能？”

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谢顿极力以和缓的语调说：“是您，陛下，一直在坚持一些不可能的事。”

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“你这个人，让我来测验你一下。假如我要你利用你的数学告诉我，是否有朝一日我会遭到行刺，你怎么说？”

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“即使将心理史学发挥到极致，我的数学体系仍无法回答如此特定的问题。全世界的量子力学都不可能预测单独一个电子的踪迹，唯一能预测的只是众多电子的平均行为。”

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“你比我更了解自己的数学理论，就根据它做个合理的猜测吧。我是否有朝一日会遭到行刺？”

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谢顿柔声答道：“您这是在对我设下圈套，陛下。干脆告诉我，您想要听什么答案，我就把这个答案说出来，否则授权给我，让我向南回答而不至招罪。”

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“你尽管说吧。”

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“您以荣誉相保？”

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“你要我立下字据吗？”克里昂语带讥讽地说。

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“您口头的荣誉担保就够了。”谢顿的心住往下沉，因为他不确定会有什么结果。

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“我以荣誉担保。”

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“那么我可以告诉您，在过去四个世纪中，几乎有一半的皇帝遭到行刺，根据这一点，我推断您遭到行刺的机会约是二分之一。”

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“任何傻瓜都能说出这个答案，”克里昂以轻蔑的口吻说，“根本不需要数学家。”

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“可是我跟您说过好几次了，我的数学理论对实际问题毫无用处。”

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“难道你就不能假设，我从那些不幸的先帝身上吸取了教训？”

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谢顿深深吸了一口气，一鼓作气说道：“不能，陛下，历史在显示我们无法从历史中吸取任何教训。举例而言，您准许我在这里单独觐见，假如我有心行刺呢？事实上，当然没有，陛下。”他赶紧补充一句。

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克里昂冷冷一笑：“你这个人，你没有考虑到我们的科技多么完善，或者说多么先进。我们研究过你的背景、你的完整履历。在你抵达之后，你就接受了扫描，你的形容和声纹都经过分析。我们知道你的详尽情绪状态，几乎可说我们知道你的思想。如果对你的忠贞有丝毫怀疑，绝对不会允许你接近我。事实上，果真如此的话，你根本活不到现在。”

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谢顿感到一阵晕眩，不过他继续说：“即使没有那么先进的科技，外人也总是难以接近任何一位皇帝。然而，几乎每次行刺都是宫廷政变，对皇帝构成最大威胁的就是最接近皇帝的人。想要趋吉避凶，细查外人其实无济于事。至于您自己的官员、您自己的禁卫军、您自己的亲信，您总不能以对待我的方式对待他们。”

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克里昂说：“这点我也知道，至少和你一样清楚。我的回答是，我对身边的每个人都很好，让他们没有怨恨我的理由。”

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“愚蠢……”谢顿话才出口便突然闭嘴，显得十分狼狈。

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“继续，”克里昂怒冲冲地说，“我已经准许你自由发表意见。你说，我是怎么个蠢法？”

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“我说溜了嘴，陛下。我原本想说的是‘无关’，这与您如何对待您的亲信根本无关。您一定会疑神疑鬼，否则就不符合人性。一个不经意的字眼——例如我刚才的表现、一个不经意的动作、一个可疑的表情，都必定会令您提高警觉，而收回一点信任。任何的猜疑都将造成恶性循环，那位亲信感觉得到，他会恼恨您的疑心，并会改变他的言行举止，尽可能避免让您再度起疑。您也会察觉这个变化，因而疑心越来越莺，到头来不是他被处决，就是您遭到行刺。过去四个世纪的列位皇帝，全都无法避免这样的过程。帝国事务变得越来越难以处理，这只是其中的征兆之一。”

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“那么，我无论如何也无法避免遭到行刺喽？”

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“是的，陛下。”讲顿说，“不过，反之，您也可能属于幸运的那一半。”

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克里昂用手指轮流敲打座椅扶手，然后厉声说道：“你这个人，你根本没用，你的心理史学也一样。给我走吧。”说完这几句话之后，皇上将头转了开去，突然间好像比三十二岁的实际年龄老了许多。

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“我早就说过，我的数学理论对您没用，陛下。我致上最深的歉意。”

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谢顿本来准备鞠躬，但两名卫士不知如何接到讯号，及时走进来将他拉开。御书房中还传出克里昂的一句：“这个人从哪里带来，就把他送回哪里去。”

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Seldon was not at all sure he would meet the Emperor. At best, he would meet some official in the fourth or fifth echelon who would claim to speak for the Emperor.

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How many people ever did see the Emperor? In person, rather than on holovision? How many people saw the real, tangible Emperor, an Emperor who never left the Imperial grounds that he, Seldon, was now rolling over. The number was vanishingly small. Twenty-five million inhabited worlds, each with its cargo of a billion human beings or more--and among all those quadrillions of human beings, how many had, or would ever, lay eyes on the living Emperor. A thousand?

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And did anyone care? The Emperor was no more than a symbol of Empire, like the Spaceship-and-Sun but far less pervasive , far less real. It was his soldiers and his officials, crawling everywhere, that now represented an Empire that had become a dead weight upon its people--not the Emperor.

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So it was that when Seldon was ushered into a moderately sized, lavishly furnished room and found a young-looking man sitting on the edge of a table in a windowed alcove , one foot on the ground and one swinging over the edge, he found himself wondering that any official should be looking at him in so blandly good-natured a way. He had already experienced the fact, over and over, that government officials--and particularly those in the Imperial service--looked grave at all times, as though bearing the weight of the entire Galaxy on their shoulders. And it seemed the lower in importance they were, the graver and more threatening their expression.

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This, then, might be an official so high in the scale, with the sun of power so bright upon him, that he felt no need of countering it with clouds of frowning. Seldon wasnt sure how impressed he ought to be, but he felt that it would be best to remain silent and let the other speak first. The official said, "You are Hari Seldon, I believe. The mathematician ."

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Seldon responded with a minimal "Yes, sir," and waited again.

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The young man waved an arm. "It should be Sire, but I hate ceremony. Its all I get and I weary of it. We are alone, so I will pamper myself and eschew ceremony. Sit down, professor."

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Halfway through the speech, Seldon realized that he was speaking to the Emperor Cleon, First of that Name, and he felt the wind go out of him. There was a faint resemblance (now that he looked) to the official holograph that appeared constantly in the news, but in that holograph, Cleon was always dressed imposingly , seemed taller, nobler, frozen-faced. And here he was, the original of the holograph, and somehow he appeared to be quite ordinary.

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Seldon did not budge .

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The Emperor frowned slightly and, with the habit of command present even in the attempt to abolish it, at least temporarily, said peremptorily , "I said, Sit down, man. That chair. Quickly."

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Seldon sat down, quite speechless. He could not even bring himself to say, "Yes, Sire."

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Cleon smiled. "Thats better. Now we can talk like two fellow human beings, which, after all, is what we are once ceremony is removed. Eh, my man?"

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Seldon said cautiously, "If Your Imperial Majesty is content to say so, then it is so."

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"Oh, come, why are you so cautious? I want to talk to you on equal terms. It is my pleasure to do so. Humor me."

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"Yes, Sire."

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"A simple Yes, man. Is there no way I can reach you?"

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Cleon stared at Seldon and Seldon thought it was a lively and interested stare.

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Finally the Emperor said, "You dont look like a mathematician."

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At last, Seldon found himself able to smile. "I dont know what a mathematician is suppose to look like, Your Imp--"

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Cleon raised a cautioning hand and Seldon choked off the honorific. Cleon said, "White-haired, I suppose. Bearded, perhaps. Old, certainly."

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"Yet even mathematicians must be young to begin with."

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"But they are then without reputation. By the time they obtrude themselves on the notice of the Galaxy, they are as I have described."

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"I am without reputation, Im afraid."

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"Yet you spoke at this convention they held here."

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"A great many of us did. Some were younger than myself. Few of us were granted any attention whatever."

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"Your talk apparently attracted the attention of some of my officials. I am given to understand that you believe it possible to predict the future."

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Seldon suddenly felt weary. It seemed as though this misinterpretation of his theory was constantly going to occur. Perhaps he should not have presented his paper.

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He said, "Not quite, actually. What I have done is much more limited than that. In many systems, the situation is such that under some conditions chaotic events take place. That means that, given a particular starting point, it is impossible to predict outcomes. This is true even in some quite simple systems, but the more complex a system, the more likely it is to become chaotic. It has always been assumed that anything as complicated as human society would quickly become chaotic and, therefore, unpredictable. What I have done, however, is to show that, in studying human society, it is possible to choose a starting point and to make appropriate assumptions that will suppress the chaos . That will make it possible to predict the future, not in full detail, of course, but in broad sweeps; not with certainty, but with calculable probabilities."

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The Emperor, who had listened carefully, said, "But doesnt that mean that you have shown how to predict the future?"

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"Again, not quite. I have showed that it is theoretically possible, but no more. To do more, we would actually have to choose a correct starting point, make correct assumptions, and then find ways of carrying through calculations in a finite time. Nothing in my mathematical argument tells us how to do any of this. And even if we could do it all, we would, at best, only assess probabilities. That is not the same as predicting the future; it is merely a guess at what is likely to happen. Every successful politician, businessman, or human being of any calling must make these estimates of the future and do it fairly well or he or she would not be successful."

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"They do it without mathematics."

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"True. They do it by intuition."

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"With the proper mathematics, anyone would be able to assess the probabilities. It wouldnt take the rare human being who is successful because of a remarkable intuitive sense."

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"True again, but I have merely shown that mathematical analysis is possible; I have not shown it to be practical."

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"How can something be possible, yet not practical?"

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"It is theoretically possible for me to visit each world of the Galaxy and greet each person on each world. However, it would take far longer to do this than I have years to live and, even if I was immortal , the rate at which new human beings are being born is greater than the rate at which I could interview the old and, even more to the point, old human beings would die in great numbers before I could ever get to them."

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"And is this sort of thing true of your mathematics of the future?" Seldon hesitated, then went on. "It might be that the mathematics would take too long to work out, even if one had a computer the size of the Universe working at hyperspatial velocities . By the time any answer had been received, enough years would have elapsed to alter the situation so grossly as to make the answer meaningless."

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"Why cannot the process be simplified?" Cleon asked sharply.

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"Your Imperial Majesty,"--Seldon felt the Emperor growing more formal as the answers grew less to his liking and responded with greater formality of his own, "consider the manner in which scientists have dealt with subatomic particles. There are enormous numbers of these, each moving or vibrating in random and unpredictable manner, but this chaos turns out to have an underlying order, so that we can work out a quantum mechanics that answers all the questions we know how to ask. In studying society, we place human beings in the place of subatomic particles, but now there is the added factor of the human mind. Particles move mindlessly; human beings do not. To take into account the various attitudes and impulses of mind adds so much complexity that there lacks time to take care of all of it."

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"Could not mind, as well as mindless motion, have an underlying order?"

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"Perhaps. My mathematical analysis implies that order must underlie everything, however disorderly it may appear to be, but it does not give any hint as to how this underlying order may be found. Consider--Twenty-five million worlds, each with its overall characteristics and culture, each being significantly different from all the rest, each containing a billion or more human beings who each have an individual mind, and all the worlds interacting in innumerable ways and combinations! However theoretically possible a psychohistorical analysis may be, it is not likely that it can be done in any practical sense."

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"What do you mean psychohistorical?"

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"I refer to the theoretical assessment of probabilities concerning the future as psychohistory. "

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The Emperor rose to his feet suddenly, strode to the other end of the room, turned, strode back, and stopped before the still-sitting Seldon. "Stand up!" he commanded.

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Seldon rose and looked up at the somewhat taller Emperor. He strove to keep his gaze steady.

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Cleon finally said, "This psychohistory of yours ... if it could be made practical, it would be of great use, would it not?"

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"Of enormous use, obviously. To know what the future holds, in even the most general and probabilistic way, would serve as a new and marvelous guide for our actions, one that humanity has never before had. But, of course--" He paused.

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"Well?" said Cleon impatiently.

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"Well, it would seem that, except for a few decision-makers, the results of psychohistorical analysis would have to remain unknown to the public."

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"Unknown!" exclaimed Cleon with surprise.

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"Its clear. Let me try to explain. If a psychohistorical analysis is made and the results are then given to the public, the various emotions and reactions of humanity would at once be distorted. The psychohistorical analysis, based on emotions and reactions that take place without knowledge of the future, become meaningless. Do you understand?"

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The Emperors eyes brightened and he laughed aloud. "Wonderful!" He clapped his hand on Seldons shoulder and Seldon staggered slightly under the blow.

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"Dont you see, man?" said Cleon. "Dont you see? Theres your use. You dont need to predict the future. Just choose a future--a good future, a useful future--and make the kind of prediction that will alter human emotions and reactions in such a way that the future you predicted will be brought about. Better to make a good future than predict a bad one."

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Seldon frowned. "I see what you mean, Sire, but that is equally impossible."

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"Impossible?"

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"Well, at any rate, impractical . Dont you see? If you cant start with human emotions and reactions and predict the future they will bring about, you cant do the reverse either. You cant start with a future and predict the human emotions and reactions that will bring it about."

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Cleon looked frustrated . His lips tightened . "And your paper, then? ... Is that what you call it, a paper? ... Of what use is it?"

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"It was merely a mathematical demonstration . It made a point of interest to mathematicians, but there was no thought in my mind of its being useful in any way."

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"I find that disgusting," said Cleon angrily. Seldon shrugged

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slightly. More than ever, he knew he should never have given the paper. What would become of him if the Emperor took it into his head that he had been made to play the fool?

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And indeed, Cleon did not look as though he was very far from believing that. "Nevertheless," he said, "what if you were to make predictions of the future, mathematically justified or not; predictions that government officials, human beings whose expertise it is to know what the public is likely to do, will judge to be the kind that will bring about useful reactions?"

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"Why would you need me to do that? The government officials could make those predictions themselves and spare the middleman."

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"The government officials could not do so as effectively. Government officials do make statements of the sort now and then. They are not necessarily believed."

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"Why would I be?"

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"You are a mathematician. You would have calculated the future, not ... not intuited it--if that is a word."

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"But I would not have done so."

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"Who would know that?" Cleon watched him out of narrowed eyes. There was a pause.

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Seldon felt trapped. If given a direct order by the Emperor, would it be safe to refuse? If he refused, he might be imprisoned or executed. Not without trial, of course, but it is only with great difficulty that a trial can be made to go against the wishes of a heavy-handed officialdom, particularly one under the command of the Emperor of the vast Galactic Empire. He said finally, "It wouldnt work."

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"Why not?"

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"If I were asked to predict vague generalities that could not possibly come to pass until long after this generation and, perhaps, the next were dead, we might get away with it, but, on the other hand, the public would pay little attention. They would not care about a glowing eventuality a century or two in the future.

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"To attain results," Seldon went on, "I would have to predict matters of sharper consequence, more immediate eventualities. Only to these would the public respond. Sooner or later, though--and probably sooner--one of the eventualities would not come to pass and my usefulness would be ended at once. With that, your popularity might be gone, too, and, worst of all, there would be no further support for the development of psychohistory so that there would be no chance for any good to come of it if future improvements in mathematical insights help to make it move closer to the realm of practicality."

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Cleon threw himself into a chair and frowned at Seldon. "Is that all you mathematicians can do? Insist on impossibilities?"

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Seldon said with desperate softness, "It is you, Sire, who insist on impossibilities."

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"Let me test you, man. Suppose I asked you to use your mathematics to tell me whether I would some day be assassinated ? What would you say?"

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"My mathematical system would not give an answer to so specific a question, even if psychohistory worked at its best. All the quantum mechanics in the world cannot make it possible to predict the behavior of one lone electron, only the average behavior of many."

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"You know your mathematics better than I do. Make an educated guess based on it. Will I someday be assassinated?"

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Seldon said softly, "You lay a trap for me, Sire. Either tell me what answer you wish and I will give it to you or else give me free right to make what answer I wish without punishment."

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"Speak as you will."

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"Your word of honor?"

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"Do you want it an writing?" Cleon was sarcastic .

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"Your spoken word of honor will be sufficient," said Seldon, his heart sinking, for he was not certain it would be.

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"You have my word of honor."

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"Then I can tell you that in the past four centuries nearly half the Emperors have been assassinated, from which I conclude that the chances of your assassination are roughly one in two."

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"Any fool can give that answer," said Cleon with contempt. "It takes no mathematician."

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"Yet I have told you several times that my mathematics is useless for practical problems."

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"Cant you even suppose that I learn the lessons that have been given me by my unfortunate predecessors ?"

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Seldon took a deep breath and plunged in. "No, Sire. All history shows that we do not learn from the lessons of the past. For instance, you have allowed me here in a private audience. What if it were in my mind to assassinate you? Which it isnt, Sire," he added hastily.

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Cleon smiled without humor. "My man, you dont take into account our thoroughness--or advances in technology. We have studied your history, your complete record. When you arrived, you were scanned. Your expression and voiceprints were analyzed . We knew your emotional state in detail; we practically knew your thoughts. Had there been the slightest doubt of your harmlessness, you would not have been allowed near me. In fact, you would not now be alive."

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A wave of nausea swept through Seldon, but he continued. "Outsiders have always found it difficult to get at Emperors, even with technology less advanced. However, almost every assassination has been a palace coup . It is those nearest the Emperor who are the greatest danger to him. Against that danger, the careful screening of outsiders is irrelevant . And as for your own officials, your own Guardsmen, your own intimates, you cannot treat them as you treat me."

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Cleon said, "I know that, too, and at least as well as you do. The answer is that I treat those about me fairly and I give them no cause for resentment ."

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"A foolish--" began Seldon, who then stopped in confusion.

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"Go on," said Cleon angrily. "I have given you permission to speak freely. How am I foolish?"

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"The word slipped out, Sire. I meant irrelevant. Your treatment of your intimates is irrelevant. You must be suspicious; it would be inhuman not to be. A careless word, such as the one I used, a careless gesture, a doubtful expression and you must withdraw a bit with narrowed eyes. And any touch of suspicion sets in motion a vicious cycle. The intimate will sense and resent the suspicion and will develop a changed behavior, try as he might to avoid it. You sense that and grow more suspicious and, in the end, either he is executed or you are assassinated. It is a process that has proved unavoidable for the Emperors of the past four centuries and it is but one sign of the increasing difficulty of conducting the affairs of the Empire."

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"Then nothing I can do will avoid assassination."

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"No, Sire," said Seldon, "but, on the other hand, you may prove fortunate."

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Cleons fingers were drumming on the arm of his chair. He said harshly, "You are useless, man, and so is your psychohistory. Leave me." And with those words, the Emperor looked away, suddenly seeming much older than his thirty-two years.

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"I have said my mathematics would be useless to you, Sire. My profound apologies." Seldon tried to bow but at some signal he did not see, two guards entered and took him away.

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Cleons voice came after him from the royal chamber . "Return that man to the place from which he was brought earlier."

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