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经济学人:前沿市场出险招赚大钱

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(1). Frontier markets

前沿市场

(2). Wedge beyond the edge

出险招，赚大钱

(3). Money is leaving emerging markets for riskier bets at the investment frontier

资本正从新兴市场流向前沿市场，追逐更具风险投资

(4). 1: MANY of Africa’s roads are scarred with potholes, so the fresh tarmac on the drive between Ndola and Kitwe, two cities in Zambia’s copper belt, is something of a treat. ||2: The country’s road building is financed by a $750m Eurobond (as dollar bonds issued outside America are known) issued in September 2012. ||3: The timing was perfect. The Federal Reserve had an open-ended commitment to buy Treasuries to keep yields low. ||4: Investors in America and Europe were hungry to buy dollar-denominated debt offering juicy yields. ||5: Zambia drew $12 billion of orders for a ten-year bond paying only 5.4%. ||6: Spain could not borrow as cheaply at the time.

1:赞比亚铜带上，恩多拉和基德伟两座城市之间，新近铺上了崭新的柏油马路。这在大部分道路都坑坑洼洼的非洲可算奢侈。||2:2012年9月，赞比亚获得7.5亿美元的欧洲债券（在美国以外发行的美元债券）用作道路建设。||3:当时时机可谓完美。美联储已承诺无限量购买美国国债以压低收益。||4:欧美投资者争相购买美元计价的高收益债券。||5:赞比亚以5.4%的低利率获得120亿美元的十年期国债订单。||6:当时，西班牙尚无法获得如此低的利率。

(5). 1: Frontier markets are generally small, illiquid and risky, so it is a surprise that recent tremors in emerging markets have not shaken them more. ||2: Exotix, a broker, calculates an average interest-rate spread of Eurobonds from 50 frontier markets (compared with Treasuries). The spread on its index has narrowed to 395 basis points. ||3: The gap between the Exotix measure and J.P. Morgan’s benchmark Emerging-Market Bond Index (EMBI) reached an all-time low of 68 basis points this week (see chart 1). ||4: Nor has investors’ interest been confined to bonds. ||5: The MSCI frontier equity index lagged behind its emerging-market cousin after the global financial crisis but recently has been catching up.

1:前沿市场通常规模小，风险大，缺乏流动性。最近的新兴市场震动并未冲击到前沿市场，实在是令人吃惊。||2:经纪公司Exotix计算出50个前沿市场的欧洲债券（与美国国债）的平均利差，已缩减至395个基点。||3:本周，Exotix指数与摩根大通的新兴市场债券指数(EMBI)的差距降至68个基点，为历史最低点。||4:投资者也不只对债券感兴趣。||5:金融危机之后，MSCI(摩根斯坦利资本国际公司)的前沿市场股票指数一直落后于新兴市场，但最近差距正逐渐缩小。

(6). 1: There is much debate about where the frontier starts and ends. ||2: If the definition is a market that is neither developed nor emerging, then 23 of the 25 fastest-growing economies over the past decade are in the frontier category. ||3: But many of these frontier economies do not have stockmarkets and only Qatar is in the MSCI frontier-market index, an industry benchmark. ||4: To qualify, a stockmarket must have at least two stocks that meet specific thresholds for size and liquidity. ||5: It must also be “accessible”: this is harder to quantify but what matters is openness to foreign ownership, the ease with which capital can flow across borders and the stockmarket’s functioning. ||6: Only 24 markets across eastern Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Asia make the cut. Their combined market capitalisation is $146 billion or so. ||7: By comparison the 21 stock markets in MSCI’s emerging-market index are worth $4 trillion.

1:对于前沿市场的定义，至今仍充满争议。||2:如果将其定义为既不是发达市场也不是新兴市场，那过去十年里25个发展最快速经济体中有23个会被归为前沿市场。||3:但这些前沿经济体当中有一大批没有股票市场，并且只有卡塔尔被纳入MSCI前沿市场指数这一基准指数当中。||4:一个合格的股票市场，必须至少拥有两支规模和流动性达到标准的股票，并且足够开放。||5:后者较难以量化，但最重要的是是否向外资开放，资本跨境流通是否便利，股市是否有效运作。||6: 横跨东欧、中东、非洲及亚洲，只有24个市场达到该标准, 总市值达1460亿美元。 ||7:与之相对的是MSCI新兴市场指数中的21个股票市场，总市值达4万亿美元。

(7). 1:A familiar grumble about these sorts of indices, which are weighted by the market value of stocks, is that they have a skew that is unfavourable to bargain-hunters.||2:Investors in index trackers spend more on stocks that have gone up in price.||3:It is an acute problem for frontier markets.||4:More than half of the MSCI index is accounted for by stocks from three oil-rich Gulf states: Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait (though the first two will soon graduate to emerging-market status).

1:这类市值加权指数常被认为有失偏颇，对欲低价买入股票的投机商不利。||2:那些追踪股票指数的投资人会在已增值的股票上花更多的钱。||3:这一问题在前沿市场尤为突出。||4:MSCI指数中有一半以上的股票来自海湾地区的三个石油大国：卡塔尔，阿联酋和科威特（不过前两个很快将升至新兴市场级别）。

(8). 1:The purist sort of frontiersman sees the job as investing in poorer countries with the greatest potential.||2:Purists give more room in their portfolios to stocks from poor, populous and fast-growing markets, such as Nigeria or Pakistan.||3:As countries like these become richer, their middle classes will grow and spending on infrastructure will increase.||4:The so-called BBC stocks (banks, brewers and cement companies) are one way to play these investment themes.||5:Zenith Bank, Nigerian Breweries and Dangote Cement are popular stocks.||6:Nestlé has a subsidiary that is listed in Lagos.||7:In Pakistan there is Bank Alfalah and DG Khan, a cement company.

1:纯粹的前沿市场投资者认为，前沿市场相对较贫穷，但潜力最大。||2:这些投资者的资产组合当中，贫穷、人口众多、快速发展市场的股票占了更大的比例，像尼日利亚和巴基斯坦。||3:在财富增长的同时，这些国家的中产阶级日益壮大，基础设施投资也将增加。||4:所谓的BBC股票（银行,啤酒厂和水泥厂）就是前沿市场常见的投资标的之一。||5:詹尼斯银行、尼日利亚啤酒厂和丹格特水泥都是抢手的股票。||6:雀巢的一家分公司在拉各斯（尼日利亚首都）上市。||7:巴基斯坦较热门的股票有阿法拉银行和德拉加齐汗水泥厂。

(9). 1: Specialist funds wanting to spread their bets may look at markets and stocks that are not in the main index. ||2: Saudi Arabia is a liquid market but tricky for foreigners to invest in. ||3: Its stockmarket sports SADAFCO, a dairy producer. ||4: Cambodia is another off-index bet. It has Nagacorp, a casino. ||5: Often the only way to buy exposure is through bonds. ||6: Angola is Africa’s third-biggest economy, after South Africa and Nigeria. It has no stockmarket but it does have a Eurobond. ||7: Mozambique’s Eurobond was ostensibly for a state-backed fishing venture. Investors bought it anyway, with one eye on the country’s fast-growing economy and the other on its offshore gas reserves.

1:希望分摊风险的专业基金有时会考虑主要指数之外的市场和股票。||2:沙特阿拉伯具有充分流动性，但对外国投资者来说，却是一个难以捉摸的市场。||3:沙特股市中最亮眼的是沙特乳制品及食品公司。||4:柬埔寨也是主要指数之外的一个投资热点，拥有博彩公司金界控股。||5:通常进行风险投资唯一的途径就是购买债券。||6:安哥拉是继南非和尼日利亚之后非洲第三大经济体，没有股市，但有欧洲债券。||7:赞比亚的欧洲债券名义上是为一家政府支持的渔业公司筹资，但投资者还是争相购买，一方面是考虑到赞比亚快速发展的经济，另一方面是看中了赞比亚丰富的近海天然气储备。

(10). 1:Greater demand should spur the supply of stocks, through sales of private stakes or privatisations.||2:Deeper equity markets would be welcome.||3:Access to debt markets is more of a mixed blessing for some.||4:Ghana issued its first Eurobond in 2007.||5:Within a few years its budget deficit blew out to 12% of GDP after a large public-sector pay rise.||6:Mozambique shows worrying signs of similar trouble.

1:需求增加，能刺激股票的供应，包括出售私人股份或私有化。||2:更具深度的股票市场将受到欢迎。||3:对一些国家来说，接触到债券市场有好亦有坏。||4:加纳于2007年第一次发行欧洲债券。||5:在....(please sign in for more)

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