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经济学人双语版

经济学人:货币政策长期低息

属类：时事政治-

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(1). A long low note

长期低息

(2). Why interest rates can be expected to stay low for years

为什么可以肯定利率在未来数年都会维持在低位？

(3). 1:Since the Bank of England was founded in 1694 its main interest rate has bounced around an average of 5%.
2:It stood at 5.75% when the financial crisis struck in 2007; since 2009 it has been at a record low of 0.5%.
3:But as Britain’s economy recovers, Mr Carney expects rates to settle below the historical norm, and points to market expectations of 2-3%.
4:That is only a shade higher than the bank’s 2% inflation target.

1:英格兰银行成立于1694年，其主要利率在平均值5%附近浮动。
2:2007年金融危机到来时，利率达到5.57%；而自2009年开始，其破纪录的停留在0.5%的低位。
3:随着英国经济恢复，马克.卡尼期望利率能维持在历史常规水平之下，即设定为市场所期望的2-3%。
4:这只比央行2%的通胀目标略高了一点。

(4). 1:The bank believes Britain’s “equilibrium interest rate”—the rate needed to keep inflation and economic growth on an even keel—is being depressed by three things.
2:One is the ongoing fiscal contraction.
3:With the state using a shrinking share of resources, the private sector has to expand faster to take up the slack.
4:A lower interest rate is needed to achieve that.

1:央行认为英国的“均衡利率”—这个利率要求稳定通货膨胀与经济增长—受到三个方面的压制。
2:第一个因素是持续的财政紧缩。
3:在国家所支配的资源的比例越来越少时，私人部门必须更快发展，以充分利用社会闲散资源。
4:为此，利率必须降低。

(5). 1:The second has to do with the country’s convalescing banks.
2:During the crisis the spread between the central bank’s policy rate and the interest rates commercial banks charged their customers for loans jumped.
3:Although the spread has fallen since, it remains much higher than it was before the crisis.
4:So the Bank of England need not raise its rate so high to generate a given level of private-sector interest rates.

1:第二个因素与本国银行业的复苏有关。
2:在这次金融危机中，央行的政策利率与商业银行向客户收取的贷款利率差额大幅上升。
3:尽管之后利率差有所回落，却仍比危机之前高很多。
4:所以英格兰银行不需大幅上调其政策利率来让私人部门的贷款利率达到设定水平。

(6). 1:The final factor is the rest of the world.
2:Britain’s openness, through trade and finance, ties it to foreign economies.
3:The euro-zone crisis has hit the country’s exporters and banks.
4:“Secular stagnation”, a notion recently popularised by Larry Summers of Harvard University, might also be at play: falling investment demand in advanced economies, combined with a glut of savings in emerging markets, has pressed down on equilibrium interest rates throughout the world.

1:最后一个因素在于世界的其他国家。
2:通过贸易与金融的开放，英国经济与外国经济紧密相连。
3:欧元区的危机打击了该国的出口商和银行。
4:近日颇为流行的经济学术语“长期性经济停滞”或许可以解释这种情形。这个术语是由哈佛大学的拉利·萨默斯提出的，指的是在发达经济中，投资需求持续下降；再加上新兴经济体中储蓄过剩，这就使得全球市场中的均衡利率都被压低。

(7). 1:These pressures seem unlikely to abate soon.
2:Britain’s major political parties are all committed to eliminating the fiscal deficit over the next parliament.
3:Credit spreads are unlikely to shrink to their pre-crisis lows, which reflected an overly sanguine attitude to financial risk.
4:The euro zone faces a lengthy slog back to health.
5:And if, as Mr Summers suggests, global stagnation persists, the downward pressure on Britain’s equilibrium interest rate might even increase.

1:这些方面的压力不可能很快消失。
2:英国的主要政党都承诺在下届国会中减少财政赤字。利率差降低到危机之前的水平也微乎其微。
3:危机之前的利率差是对金融风险乐观过度的反映。
4:欧元区经济也要经历一段漫长的跋涉方能恢复。
5:如果正如萨默斯而言，全球经济停滞会持续，那么英国均衡利率的下行压力甚至还可能会增加。

(8). 1:But a low equilibrium interest rate should make Mr Carney nervous.
2:Bank rates cannot easily be cut to below zero.
3:A new normal of 2-3% would thus leave the bank with little space to cut rates when future shocks hit.
4:Britain’s emergency monetary experiments, such as quantitative easing and forward guidance, are known as “unconventional”.
5:In time they could become part of the new normal, too.

1:但是一个较低的均衡利率让卡尼很紧张。
2:银行利率不会轻易降低到负数。
3:常规的2-3%的利率会让银行在应对未来冲击时没有空间去降低利率。
4:英国尝试了紧急状态下的货币政策，例如定量宽松和前瞻指导，都以“非传统”而著名。
5:在适当时候，它们就可以成为新常规的一部分。