Weather Forecaster and Numerical Weather Prediction

和预报员谈数值预报

Analyses of economic indicators represent the forecaster ’s “crystal ball”

经济指标的分析，象征着预测者用以占卜的“水晶球”。

The weather-forecaster cautioned us about the icy roads

气象预报员提醒我们注意结冰的道路。

It forces the forecaster to be as objective as he possible can be

它迫使预测者尽可能地做到客观无偏见。

The weather forecaster cautioned us about the icy roads.

天气预报员提醒我们当心路面有冰冻。

The 8.5m vehicles VW made last year cover all corners: Volkswagen, Skoda and SEAT in the mass market; Audi in premium cars; Porsche, Bugatti and Lamborghini in sports cars; Bentley at the luxury end; plus various commercial-vehicle brands. Most (SEAT excepted) are firing on all cylinders.|| IHS Automotive, a forecaster , expects VW easily to beat its target of 11m sales by 2018.||

||1:大众公司去年生产的850万辆汽车覆盖了所有市场类型——大众市场内有大众、斯柯达以及西亚特；高档车市场有奥迪；跑车领域有保时捷、布加迪和兰博基尼；高端豪车里有宾利，外加诸多商务车品牌。||2:除西亚特外，其余品牌销量大都一路领先。||3:预测机构思迈汽车信息咨询公司称，大众公司有望在2018年轻松突破年1100万辆车的销售目标。||

||1:Another slashed expense is that of climate action.||2:Aviation emits 3% of manmade carbon dioxide.||3:That share could rise to 5-9% by 2050, according to the International Energy Agency, a forecaster .||4:To curb these emissions, in 2013 the European Union tried to add international aviation to its emissions-trading programme, including flights connecting EU airports to those outside the bloc.||5:The industry cried foul.||6:In a compromise the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO), an agency of the UN, devised the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation.||7:CORSIA, as it is known for short, is due to start next year.||8:It compels airlines to buy offsets for any additional CO2 produced by international flights above a baseline.

||1:另一项削减开支的措施与气候行动相关。||2:航空业二氧化碳排放量占人类制造的二氧化碳排放量的3%。||3:据国际能源署预测，到2050年，这一比例可能增至5-9%。||4:为了减排，2013年，欧盟试图将国际航空业纳入其碳排放交易计划，包括来往于欧盟机场内外的航班。||5:航空业为此叫苦不迭。||6:联合国下属的国际民用航空组织（ICAO）作出妥协，设计了《国际航空碳抵消和减排计划》。||7:《国际航空碳抵消和减排计划》，简称CORSIA，将于明年生效。||8:这项计划迫使航空公司对于超过基准的国际航班产生的任何额外的二氧化碳进行购买抵消。

||1:By contrast, PricewaterhouseCoopers thinks Britain will win 54 medals, and Daniel Johnson of Colorado College, another veteran forecaster , actually thinks Britain will win fewer medals at home than it did four years ago in Beijing(down by two to 45).||2:The new comer to the field is Kevin Daly, an economist at Goldman Sachs, who calculates that on average the host nation of an Olympics wins 54% more medals than usual.||3:Taking Britain’s 47 last time as “usual”, that would translate into a whopping 72 medals in London.||4:We shall soon find out which, if any, of these dismal scientists is on the right track.

||1:与之相反的是，普华永道的经济学家们认为英国今年将赢得54块奖牌；同时，来自科罗拉多学院的老牌预测行家丹尼尔·强生（Daniel Johnson）实际上也认为英国今年将比四年前拿得奖牌少一些（比四年前减少两枚，即45枚奖牌）。||2:不过，来自高盛（Goldman Sachs）的新手，经济学家凯文·戴利（Kevin Daly）计算出：一般情况下，奥运会的东道主国家比往常获得的奖牌数量要多54%。||3:就拿四年前的“47”块奖牌作为往常量，而经过运算后就得出今年伦敦奥运会英国将获得惊人的72枚奖牌。||4:当然，不久我们就能知道这些经济学家中谁预测的结果最准（如果有人预测准确的话）。

On November 13th the International Energy Agency (IEA), an intergovernmental forecaster ,

11月13日，政府间预测机构国际能源署 （IEA）预测

IHS is not the only forecaster to be much more cheerful.

IHS不是唯一的比较乐观的预测者。

J. D. Power, an automotive-market forecaster , thinks that 2011 could be the start of five years of “sluggish” growth.

D帕沃，作为汽车市场的预测专家，认为2011年会成为五年不景气的开始。

JD Power and rival forecaster CSM Worldwide both expect Spanish car sales to end the year down about 25 per cent.

JDPower及其同行CSMWorldwide都预计，西班牙的汽车销售量到今年年底将下降25%左右。

OPEC is the second major forecaster to lift its demand estimates this week.

OPEC为本周第二个调高需求预估的主要预测机构。

iSuppli, one such forecaster , thinks that revenues will fall by more than 20% this year, to $205 billion (see chart 1).

持有如上预测的iSuppli[1]公司认为今年的相关收入将会同比下降20%，为2050亿美元（见图一）。

In practice, the forward market is a poor forecaster .

从实践上来讲，远期交易市场是差劲的预报员。

Sedatives for thunderstorm phobia: “One pill 30 minutes before the storm arrives (you’ll be a weather forecaster before you know it! )”

对付雷暴恐惧的镇静药：“在暴风雨来临前30分钟给他吃一片（不知不觉间你就成了天气预测员！）”

There is also an inverse relationship between the confidence of the individual forecaster and the accuracy of their predictions

个体预测者的自信程度与其所做预测之间，也存在着反向关系。

If extrapolation is the forecaster ’s friend, mean reversion is the forecaster’s crutch.

如果说外推法是预测家的朋友，那么均值回归理论（meanreversion）就是预测家的拐杖。

’We had something called ’captured fetch’ happen and it’s pretty rare here, ’ chief forecaster Ben McCartney said.

首席预报员BenMcCartney说：我们将这种现象称之为“吸引的诱惑”并且这种现象是非常少见的。

He finds that the better known the forecaster , the less accurate the forecast.

他发现，预言家越出名，其预测就越不准确。

The Pollyannas of HM Treasury were more optimistic than almost any commercial forecaster , and closer to getting their forecast right.

英国财政部的乐观者比几乎任何一家商业预测机构都更为乐观，也更接近实际数据。

“Ultimately, it all depends on the dollar, ” says Adrian Cooper, managing director of Oxford Economics, a forecaster .

预测机构牛津经济（OxfordEconomics）的董事总经理阿德里安-库珀（AdrianCooper）指出：“归根结底，这完全取决于美元。”

China faces an increase in weather disasters which will threaten crops and economic growth, the country’s most senior forecaster has warned.

中国最资深的气象预报专家警告说，中国面临着气候灾害的增加，这将威胁到农作物生产以及经济增长。

Take that thought a bit further, and perhaps it has a future as a privately run economic forecaster ?

最后想得稍微深远些，或许它的将来会是一个私营的经济风向标。

hail forecaster

闪电计数器

weather forecaster

ph.1. 气象报告员

ischemia stroke forecaster

中风预报仪

Pilot Forecaster Service (Military)

军用移动气象预报服务