Analysis on Illiquidity Share Transitional Trading Plan by VaR Theory

基于VaR技术的国有股过渡流通市场研究

||1: Mr Trichet is right, but only up to a point. ||2: The sheer scale of European’ banks’ funding needs (about 1.7 Euro trillion, or 2.5 dollor trillion, in the next three years) is daunting: an idea from Morgan Stanley, to use the EFSF to offer European guarantees on new bank debt, has gained traction recently. ||3: And illiquidity is a symptom of concerns about solvency. ||4: So Ms Lagarde is right that strengthening banks’ buffers is important. ||5: The July stress tests, which did not allow for sovereign defaults, offer scant guidance. ||6: Using the market price of sovereign bonds, the IMF thinks that European banks could have unrecognised losses of Euro200 billion, meaning lots more capital would be needed. ||7: The EFSF is one sensible source.

||1:特里谢说的没错，但也不完全如此。||2:欧洲各银行的基金需求的绝对规模（在接下来的三年大概1.7万亿欧元，或2.5万亿美元）让人瞠目：摩根史坦利的想法是用欧洲金融稳定机构（EFSF）在新的银行债务上作为欧洲担保，最近该想法获得青睐。||3:而且非流动性是对偿还能力担心的一个特征。||4:因此，拉加德认为加强银行的缓冲是非常重要，这样的观点是正确的。||5:7月份的压力测试，因为没有考虑到主权违约，缺乏指导意义。||6:国际国币基金组织认为，如果采用国债的市场价格，欧洲银行看不到的损失将达到二千亿欧元，这意味着需要更多的资金。||7:欧洲金融稳定机构（EFSF）则是一个明智的资金来源。

Deutsche makes several suggestions as to what might cause one, from a debt-related crash in China, through the rise of populist political parties to the problem of illiquidity in bond markets.

德意志银行对什么可能造成下一场危机提出多个建议，从中国方面的一场与债务有关的崩溃，经由各种民粹主义政党的兴起，到债券市场流动性不足的问题。

Few financial economists thought much about illiquidity or counterparty risk, for instance, because their standard models ignore it;

比如说，几乎没有什么金融学家会去过多地考虑资产的低流动性以及违约风险因为标准的经济模型会忽视这些。

And illiquidity is a symptom of concerns about solvency.

并且不流动性是关于偿付能力的另一担心趋势。

In addition to the illiquidity of state-owned shares, tight control over IPOs and share placements are also to blame.

除了国有股缺乏流动性外，中国对首次公开发行和配股的严格控制也难辞其咎。

Creating a synthetic ETF does not eliminate this illiquidity risk, but merely transforms it into a bet on the creditworthiness of a bank.

创建一个合成的ETF并不能消除这种不流动性风险，只是仅仅将其转化成了对银行信用度的赌注。

A chunk of mark-to-market losses reflect illiquidity discounts on fairlyhigh-quality bonds, which could unwind if markets normalise.

大部分盯市损失是高质量债券非流动性贴现，在正常的市场条件下，非流动性会得到释放。

But the price was illiquidity ; in other words, all the losses come in a big lump.

但是价格流动不足；换句话说，损失一次性的发生了。

The result would be illiquidity in both the market for public debt and the banking system.

结果可能导致公债市场和银行系统都出现流动性匮乏。

And illiquidity is a symptom of concerns about solvency. So Ms Lagarde is right that strengthening banks' buffers is important.

流动性不足往往会使人联系到偿付能力出问题，因此拉加德提出重视加强银行缓冲能力的观点是正确的。

Leaders have mistaken a problem of insolvency for one of illiquidity .

欧洲领导人错把无力偿债问题当成了流动性不足问题。

First, address illiquidity in the market for mortgage-backed securities.

首先，解决抵押担保证券市场中的流动性问题。

It is not necessary, because the Federal Reserve is able to manage illiquidity through its many lender-of-last resort operations.

它没有必要是因为，美联储（Fed）能够通过其多种最后贷款人操作解决流动性不足。

By reassuring investors that a committed buyer is in the market, it hopes to reduce the illiquidity premium pushing yields up.

通过明确市场上有一个执着的买者以使投资者安心，联储希望可以减小非流动性溢价导致的利息升高。

The illiquidity of the portfolios counted against them.

投资组合的非流动性带来不利后果。

We are witnessing a lethal interplay between fears of sovereign insolvency, emerging sovereign illiquidity and financial stress (see chart).

我们现在看到的是，市场对主权国家破产的担心、日益显现的主权国家流动性不足以及金融体系所承受的压力正致命地交织在一起（见图表）。

The increased risk and illiquidity has also lead to a spike in volatility, contributing to the higher margins.

与日俱增的风险以及流动性降低引起了资产价格波动性，对于那些高保证金的非流动性资产尤其如此。

The core challenge, then, is viewed as illiquidity , not insolvency.

这样看来，根本挑战被视作流动性不足，而非没有尝债能力。

Yet the past year has shown that uncertainty breeds illiquidity .

只是去年的事实表明不确定导致了流动性不足。

The new plan seems to make sense if and only if the principal problem is illiquidity .

只有当首要问题是缺乏流动性的时候，新的计划才似乎有意义。