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基地系列:基地前奏|Prelude to Foundation

第三章|Chapter 3

属类： 双语小说 【分类】魔幻小说 -[作者: 艾萨克-阿西莫夫] 阅读：[13963]
《基地前奏》 在《基地与地球》中广袤荒凉的星际旅程之后,《基地前奏》将镜头拉回到基地三部曲开场之前几十年,繁华的帝国之都川陀。开创整个基地故事根基.故事的时间线来到《基地》的几十年前，彼时的哈里·谢顿还未开创出完整的心理史学，只是发表了一篇论文。但正是这篇关乎可以预言未来的论文将谢顿带上一段逃亡冒险之旅。
《 字+字- 行+行- 页+页- 字+字- 行+行- 页+页- 》
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Seldon was not at all sure he would meet the Emperor. At best, he would meet some official in the fourth or fifth echelon who would claim to speak for the Emperor.

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How many people ever did see the Emperor? In person, rather than on holovision? How many people saw the real, tangible Emperor, an Emperor who never left the Imperial grounds that he, Seldon, was now rolling over. The number was vanishingly small. Twenty-five million inhabited worlds, each with its cargo of a billion human beings or more--and among all those quadrillions of human beings, how many had, or would ever, lay eyes on the living Emperor. A thousand?

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And did anyone care? The Emperor was no more than a symbol of Empire, like the Spaceship-and-Sun but far less pervasive , far less real. It was his soldiers and his officials, crawling everywhere, that now represented an Empire that had become a dead weight upon its people--not the Emperor.

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So it was that when Seldon was ushered into a moderately sized, lavishly furnished room and found a young-looking man sitting on the edge of a table in a windowed alcove , one foot on the ground and one swinging over the edge, he found himself wondering that any official should be looking at him in so blandly good-natured a way. He had already experienced the fact, over and over, that government officials--and particularly those in the Imperial service--looked grave at all times, as though bearing the weight of the entire Galaxy on their shoulders. And it seemed the lower in importance they were, the graver and more threatening their expression.

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This, then, might be an official so high in the scale, with the sun of power so bright upon him, that he felt no need of countering it with clouds of frowning. Seldon wasnt sure how impressed he ought to be, but he felt that it would be best to remain silent and let the other speak first. The official said, "You are Hari Seldon, I believe. The mathematician ."

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Seldon responded with a minimal "Yes, sir," and waited again.

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The young man waved an arm. "It should be Sire, but I hate ceremony. Its all I get and I weary of it. We are alone, so I will pamper myself and eschew ceremony. Sit down, professor."

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Halfway through the speech, Seldon realized that he was speaking to the Emperor Cleon, First of that Name, and he felt the wind go out of him. There was a faint resemblance (now that he looked) to the official holograph that appeared constantly in the news, but in that holograph, Cleon was always dressed imposingly , seemed taller, nobler, frozen-faced. And here he was, the original of the holograph, and somehow he appeared to be quite ordinary.

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Seldon did not budge .

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The Emperor frowned slightly and, with the habit of command present even in the attempt to abolish it, at least temporarily, said peremptorily , "I said, Sit down, man. That chair. Quickly."

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Seldon sat down, quite speechless. He could not even bring himself to say, "Yes, Sire."

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Cleon smiled. "Thats better. Now we can talk like two fellow human beings, which, after all, is what we are once ceremony is removed. Eh, my man?"

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Seldon said cautiously, "If Your Imperial Majesty is content to say so, then it is so."

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"Oh, come, why are you so cautious? I want to talk to you on equal terms. It is my pleasure to do so. Humor me."

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"Yes, Sire."

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"A simple Yes, man. Is there no way I can reach you?"

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Cleon stared at Seldon and Seldon thought it was a lively and interested stare.

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Finally the Emperor said, "You dont look like a mathematician."

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At last, Seldon found himself able to smile. "I dont know what a mathematician is suppose to look like, Your Imp--"

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Cleon raised a cautioning hand and Seldon choked off the honorific. Cleon said, "White-haired, I suppose. Bearded, perhaps. Old, certainly."

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"Yet even mathematicians must be young to begin with."

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"But they are then without reputation. By the time they obtrude themselves on the notice of the Galaxy, they are as I have described."

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"I am without reputation, Im afraid."

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"Yet you spoke at this convention they held here."

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"A great many of us did. Some were younger than myself. Few of us were granted any attention whatever."

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"Your talk apparently attracted the attention of some of my officials. I am given to understand that you believe it possible to predict the future."

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Seldon suddenly felt weary. It seemed as though this misinterpretation of his theory was constantly going to occur. Perhaps he should not have presented his paper.

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He said, "Not quite, actually. What I have done is much more limited than that. In many systems, the situation is such that under some conditions chaotic events take place. That means that, given a particular starting point, it is impossible to predict outcomes. This is true even in some quite simple systems, but the more complex a system, the more likely it is to become chaotic. It has always been assumed that anything as complicated as human society would quickly become chaotic and, therefore, unpredictable. What I have done, however, is to show that, in studying human society, it is possible to choose a starting point and to make appropriate assumptions that will suppress the chaos . That will make it possible to predict the future, not in full detail, of course, but in broad sweeps; not with certainty, but with calculable probabilities."

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The Emperor, who had listened carefully, said, "But doesnt that mean that you have shown how to predict the future?"

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"Again, not quite. I have showed that it is theoretically possible, but no more. To do more, we would actually have to choose a correct starting point, make correct assumptions, and then find ways of carrying through calculations in a finite time. Nothing in my mathematical argument tells us how to do any of this. And even if we could do it all, we would, at best, only assess probabilities. That is not the same as predicting the future; it is merely a guess at what is likely to happen. Every successful politician, businessman, or human being of any calling must make these estimates of the future and do it fairly well or he or she would not be successful."

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"They do it without mathematics."

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"True. They do it by intuition."

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"With the proper mathematics, anyone would be able to assess the probabilities. It wouldnt take the rare human being who is successful because of a remarkable intuitive sense."

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"True again, but I have merely shown that mathematical analysis is possible; I have not shown it to be practical."

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"How can something be possible, yet not practical?"

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"It is theoretically possible for me to visit each world of the Galaxy and greet each person on each world. However, it would take far longer to do this than I have years to live and, even if I was immortal , the rate at which new human beings are being born is greater than the rate at which I could interview the old and, even more to the point, old human beings would die in great numbers before I could ever get to them."

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"And is this sort of thing true of your mathematics of the future?" Seldon hesitated, then went on. "It might be that the mathematics would take too long to work out, even if one had a computer the size of the Universe working at hyperspatial velocities . By the time any answer had been received, enough years would have elapsed to alter the situation so grossly as to make the answer meaningless."

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"Why cannot the process be simplified?" Cleon asked sharply.

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"Your Imperial Majesty,"--Seldon felt the Emperor growing more formal as the answers grew less to his liking and responded with greater formality of his own, "consider the manner in which scientists have dealt with subatomic particles. There are enormous numbers of these, each moving or vibrating in random and unpredictable manner, but this chaos turns out to have an underlying order, so that we can work out a quantum mechanics that answers all the questions we know how to ask. In studying society, we place human beings in the place of subatomic particles, but now there is the added factor of the human mind. Particles move mindlessly; human beings do not. To take into account the various attitudes and impulses of mind adds so much complexity that there lacks time to take care of all of it."

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"Could not mind, as well as mindless motion, have an underlying order?"

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"Perhaps. My mathematical analysis implies that order must underlie everything, however disorderly it may appear to be, but it does not give any hint as to how this underlying order may be found. Consider--Twenty-five million worlds, each with its overall characteristics and culture, each being significantly different from all the rest, each containing a billion or more human beings who each have an individual mind, and all the worlds interacting in innumerable ways and combinations! However theoretically possible a psychohistorical analysis may be, it is not likely that it can be done in any practical sense."

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"What do you mean psychohistorical?"

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"I refer to the theoretical assessment of probabilities concerning the future as psychohistory. "

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The Emperor rose to his feet suddenly, strode to the other end of the room, turned, strode back, and stopped before the still-sitting Seldon. "Stand up!" he commanded.

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Seldon rose and looked up at the somewhat taller Emperor. He strove to keep his gaze steady.

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Cleon finally said, "This psychohistory of yours ... if it could be made practical, it would be of great use, would it not?"

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"Of enormous use, obviously. To know what the future holds, in even the most general and probabilistic way, would serve as a new and marvelous guide for our actions, one that humanity has never before had. But, of course--" He paused.

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"Well?" said Cleon impatiently.

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"Well, it would seem that, except for a few decision-makers, the results of psychohistorical analysis would have to remain unknown to the public."

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"Unknown!" exclaimed Cleon with surprise.

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"Its clear. Let me try to explain. If a psychohistorical analysis is made and the results are then given to the public, the various emotions and reactions of humanity would at once be distorted. The psychohistorical analysis, based on emotions and reactions that take place without knowledge of the future, become meaningless. Do you understand?"

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The Emperors eyes brightened and he laughed aloud. "Wonderful!" He clapped his hand on Seldons shoulder and Seldon staggered slightly under the blow.

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"Dont you see, man?" said Cleon. "Dont you see? Theres your use. You dont need to predict the future. Just choose a future--a good future, a useful future--and make the kind of prediction that will alter human emotions and reactions in such a way that the future you predicted will be brought about. Better to make a good future than predict a bad one."

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Seldon frowned. "I see what you mean, Sire, but that is equally impossible."

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"Impossible?"

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"Well, at any rate, impractical . Dont you see? If you cant start with human emotions and reactions and predict the future they will bring about, you cant do the reverse either. You cant start with a future and predict the human emotions and reactions that will bring it about."

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Cleon looked frustrated . His lips tightened . "And your paper, then? ... Is that what you call it, a paper? ... Of what use is it?"

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"It was merely a mathematical demonstration . It made a point of interest to mathematicians, but there was no thought in my mind of its being useful in any way."

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"I find that disgusting," said Cleon angrily. Seldon shrugged

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slightly. More than ever, he knew he should never have given the paper. What would become of him if the Emperor took it into his head that he had been made to play the fool?

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