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股票大作手回忆录|Memoirs of Stock Makers

第十章|Chapter X

属类： 双语小说 【分类】其他读物 -[作者: 爱德温-勒菲弗] 阅读：[6447]
主要讲述了利弗莫尔的一生，不但用鲜活的笔触，复原了他充满激情的生活历程，更从专业的角度，详细介绍了利弗莫尔的各种技巧，并用最准确的表述，无限接近了他的思想最深邃处。
自工业化洪流激荡整个社会后，资本市场就以其无限魅力，强劲地席卷更多人参与其中。在过往100年的金钱游戏里，无疑出现许多顶尖高手，但最被后人不能忘怀的非杰西·利弗莫尔莫属。对数字的极端敏感加之惊人的记忆力，使不到20岁的利弗莫尔，就掌握了一套无往不胜的技术方法，最终被以盘剥“肥羊”为生的所有对赌行拒之门外。随即他转战华尔街，历经几次沉浮，炼就了一套辨识市场趋势的“秘诀”。凭着市场趋势这一“最佳搭档”，数度击溃幕后操纵者，成为当之无愧的投机之王
《 字+字- 行+行- 页+页- 字+字- 行+行- 页+页- 》
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我们认识到错误，应该不会比研究自己为什么成功更有好处。大家自然都不想受到错误的惩罚，当犯错带来恶果后，谁也不想重蹈覆辙，来自股市的错误会对你造成财产和自尊上的双重伤害。不过我要告诉你一些奇怪的现象：有时候交易商们做错事情的时候，是心知肚明的。他们出错后会自问原因，当后果带来的痛苦烟消云散后，思考良久，他们就有可能搞明白，自己什么时候、在哪里、怎么样出了错，可他不会知道出错的原因，只会骂自己一句，然后就放过了。

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当然，如果一个人既聪明又运气比较好，就不会在同一条道上摔倒两次，可其他那么多类似的错误保不齐就会犯。世界上的错真是太多，当你每次想知道自己会不会出错时，可能有个错就悄悄守在你身边。

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要告诉你我的第一个百万美元的错误，就得从1907年10月我第一次成为百万富翁后开始说。以我的交易而言，一百万只是说明我多了点保证金。金钱本身不会给股民带来更多的舒适，因为不管贫穷还是富有，都会出错，这是让人永远不爽的事情。当事情做对的时候，金钱只是个工具。赔钱对我也始终没产生过困扰，过上一天我就会忘掉。若做错了事情而不愿意接受所受的亏损，那就不光是金钱的损失了，心灵也会受到伤害。你还记得迪克森·华兹讲过的一件小事吧。有个人特别紧张，朋友问他到底怎么了。

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他说：“我总失眠。”

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朋友问原因，他说：“我的棉花期货的头寸特别大，想想就难以入睡，我被折腾得筋疲力尽。我该怎么办？”

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朋友劝他：“卖掉吧，让你的头寸少到你能睡踏实的程度。”

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一般而言，人是很能适应环境而丧失洞察能力的动物。他察觉不到有多大区别，就是说，他基本上不可能想起还没成为百万富翁的时候自己是什么感觉了，而只知道一些当时做不了，现在却可以做的事情。年轻、正常、理智的人由俭入奢易，由奢入俭难。我觉得原因是金钱会挑起人的欲望，人们总是多少抱着多多益善的观念。意思是说，当有人从股市赚了钱后，很快就纸醉金迷了，可一旦他又没钱了，要改掉大手大脚的习惯，就得花很长时间。

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1907年10月，我不再做空而是开始做多。我计划先放松一下，于是就买了一艘游艇，想去南边的海域游玩一趟。我特别喜欢钓鱼，总想着要好好钓一场鱼，也盼望有实现的那一天，可股市却总不能让我如愿。

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一直以来，我既进行股票交易，也玩商品期货。年轻的时候，我就开始在对赌行做期货交易了。这些年来，我一直在研究期货市场，只不过不像对股市那样上心。其实相比较的话，我更偏向做期货，不是因为它看起来更正统，虽然确实如此，可它也具备更高的风险。用一个假设的理由来反对或者支持期货市场的价格走向，即便成功也是短暂的，最后还是事实得到胜利。所以，就像做其他普通生意一样，交易商们总是靠研究和观察得到报酬。他可以观察和考虑各种情况，而且可以跟别人知道的一样多。他不用跟幕后集团做斗争。在棉花、小麦、玉米期货市场上，没有红利分配这一说法。长久以来，商品价格只受一种法则主导——供需的经济法则。玩期货的人只要知道供求状态、现况和趋势就行，不用像炒股一样对很多事情做预估，所以期货对我的吸引力更大。

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所有的投机市场都有相同点，行情走势的分析技巧是一样的。对于所有热衷于思考的人而言，这一点非常清楚。如果人多问自己几个为什么，对各个因素考虑明白，答案就直接出来了。可是人们总是懒于发问，更不用说找答案了。一般美国人生性多疑，而且任何时候都是这样，只有到经纪商那里看盘的时候例外，不管看的是股票还是商品。在所有的游戏当中，玩之前真正需要研究的一种游戏，刚好就是美国人没有利用平常惯有的高度警觉和极为聪明的准备就投身其中的游戏。有的人拿出自己的一半身家去冒险时，花在思考上的时间还没买一辆车时考虑的时间长。

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分析行情并没那么难。当然这需要经验，但是更需要的是在心里记住一些基本要素。分析情势并不是为了知道运气好不好，它可不会对你说下周四下午一点三十五你会有多少钱。分析行情是为了如何交易和什么时候交易——也就是说，应该买还是卖，这些对股票、棉花、小麦和玉米都一样有效。

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你观察市场自然是依靠行情记录机显示的价格情况，目的只有一个，就是确定方向，即价格走向。我们知道，价格会根据实际情况上涨或者下跌。为了简单解释清楚，我们把价格看作跟其他东西一样，在沿着最小阻力线变化。它们通常是怎么变化容易就会怎么变，所以当上涨阻力小于下跌阻力时，价格就会上涨，反过来也一样。

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如果股市开局很稳，后面不管牛市还是熊市，都不应该感到困惑。对一个思维敏捷并很有眼光的人而言，趋势很明显。对于投机客来说，总想着拿理论往事实身上死套，是很愚蠢的。清楚了是牛市还是熊市，就知道了该买还是该卖。人就应该在市场一开始就判断出走向。

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比如，假设市场一如既往地起起伏伏，波动在10个点内，最高能涨到130，最低跌到120。可能当它快跌到支撑点120时，就会劲力不足而显得疲软。或者在上涨8个点或10个点的路上，看起来特别强劲。你不应该根据某些简单迹象就贸然行动，而是应该根据行情记录来判断时机是否已到。其实人们因为价格看起来便宜就买，或是因为价格看起来贵就卖，已经损失了几千万美元。投机的人跟投资的人不一样，他不是为了得到稳定回报，而是在价格的上下变动中谋取利益。所以他需要确定的是哪个投机路线阻力最小，他应该等待市场自行确定最高上涨点和最低下跌点，这是交易上该遵循的原则。

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在看行情走势的时候，你觉得股价在130时，卖掉比买进要好。市场在持续变化，那些对行情分析半瓶子醋的人就会觉得股价能涨到150，所以买进，可是当价格回落时他们要么坚持，要么甘愿接受现实而做空。在120的时候，股价下跌遇到的阻力比较大，买比卖强，价格开涨，空头又去回补。很多人通常就是这样两面受打击，还总不吸取教训，真是让人深感奇怪。

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反正最终肯定会出现让涨或跌变得比较强势的事，最大阻力点会上升或者下降。也就是说，在130的时候，买盘比卖盘强，而在120的时候则相反。价格会突破波动的区间而继续变动，很多人总会在120时做空，因为貌似市场很疲弱，而在130的时候正相反。当股市不利于他们时，他们就只能认栽。就是这些人协助确立了阻力位和支撑点。一些聪明又很有耐心的人却等着股市走向明确，他们会利用基本交易形式来帮忙，也会利用那些做错的人们对市场产生的交易力量而赚钱。那些人的错误会把价格推向最小阻力点。

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我说的这个并不是很精确和公认的理论，但是每当我靠着自己对阻力最小的路线所做的判断，决定市场方向时，我的经验是，这些意外事件总是会顺从我的市场方向，也就是突发或无法预见的事件总是协助我做的市场方向。你还记得我提到过的那次在萨拉托加太平洋铁路公司的股票事件吗？我做了多头，是因为我觉得最小阻力线在上升。我就该坚持做多头，而不是听经纪人的话卖掉。公司董事们心里想什么没有任何差别，反正这也不是我能知道的事情。接着果然就发生了配股率突然提高，股价涨了30点的事情。股价若到了164，看起来就非常高了，可正如我之前所说，股价绝对不会高得不能买进，或是低得不能卖出。股价的高低，从本质上来说，与确立最小阻力线没什么关系。

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如果你按照我说的方法交易，实际炒股时你会知道，收盘后出来的大信息通常都配合阻力最小的路线。在消息出来前，走向就已经定了。牛市时，人们会忽视利空消息，而夸大利好消息，反过来也一样。世界大战爆发前，股市很不好。德国宣布了无限制潜艇战政策。我当时放空了50万，并不是我得到了什么消息，而是我沿着最小阻力线来做。就我的操作而言，德国的宣布好比晴天霹雳。我利用这种情况，当天就回补了空头。

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我说你只需要观察股市行情，确立好关口，只要你确定最小阻力线后，就准备沿着这条线路交易，这听起来很简单。可是，在实际的交易过程中，却必须要防备很多事情，最重要的是要小心你自己——也就是要对抗人心的弱点。这就是为什么我说正确的人总有股力量——基本情势和错误的人——在帮助他。在牛市期，人们会对利空消息不那么重视，这就是人性，可人们还对这一点表示震惊。因为一两个地区的天气很恶劣，大家会告诉你说，小麦作物完了，等到整个作物收成，所有的产区的小麦都被送到谷仓时，多头会惊讶地发现损害程度如此轻微。他们发现，自己只是帮了空头的忙。

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做期货交易，不能保持固定不变的思维，而必须要思维活跃。不管你对谷物供需情况持什么态度，都不要忽略行情记录里面的信息。我记得有一次我由于鲁莽错失了良机。我对情势很确定，觉得没必要等待最小阻力线，我甚至有过要帮它确立的想法，因为好像只需要一点点协助就行了。

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我觉得棉花会暴涨。棉花当时一直在每磅12美分上下浮动，范围很小。我知道自己应该稍等一下，可我同时觉得只要稍微推一下，就可以让它突破阻力位。

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我买了5万包棉花，它果然涨了。我一停止买进，它也就不再继续上涨，接着跌落到了我开始买进时的价格。我退出来，它也就不跌了。我认为我现在更接近出发点了，于是我立刻认为我应该再度出发。我也这样做了。同样的事情又发生了一次，我抬高了价格，一停止买进我就看到价格下跌。我来来回回这样做了四五次，最终只好放弃，一共赔了20万。没过多久，棉花又开始涨了，居然涨到了让我恨死自己的程度，如果我不那么急着开始该多好啊。

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很多玩家都经历过很多次这样的事情，所以我定了一条原则：市场窄幅波动时，价格波动范围很小，要预估下一个大波动是往上还是往下，这个实在没什么意义。应该做的事情是观察市场，分析走向，判定浮动上下线，在价格没有突破上下线时，千万不要有所行动。投机的人必须要一心一意靠市场获利，而非坚持等大盘形势与自己的预估一样。永远不要向综合行情叫板，不要询问理由或解释。事后替股市解剖验尸没有任何好处。

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前不久，我和几个朋友在一起，他们在讨论小麦期货。有人觉得会涨，有人觉得会跌，他们最后问我的看法。我已经有了一段时间的市场经验，我知道他们想得到的不是统计数据，也不是对行情的判断，因此我说：“你们要是想在小麦市场赚钱，我可以教你们方法。”

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他们当然说想赚钱，我就说：“你们要是真想赚钱的话，观察情势就可以，然后等着，耐心点。等到1.2美元的时候就买进，就能赚很大一笔。”

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“为什么现在不买？才1.14美元。”有人说。

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“因为现在还不能确定上涨的真实性。”

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“那为什么要在1.2美元时买进？不是更贵了吗？”

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“你想鲁莽地大赚一次，还是明智又保险地少赚点呢？”

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他们都回答说，最好是稳稳当当赚点。于是我说：“那就听我的没错，1.2美元时再去买。”

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我所料没错，我已经观察了很长时间。几个月来，小麦一直在1.1和1.2美元间浮动，没其他特殊的状况出现。终于有一天，收市时的价格是1.19美元。我早做了准备，如果没什么意外的话，第二天开盘价就是1.205美元。所以我买进了。小麦的价格从1.21涨到了1.25，我当然是一路加码了。

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此时我跟你说不清到底是怎么回事，我对它的小小浮动也给不出解释，我不能告诉你，浮动只向上突破1.2还是向下跌破1.1。我觉得就是会上涨，因为当时小麦非常缺乏。

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其实，欧洲似乎一直在悄悄地买进，很多人在1.19美元时放空。因为欧洲人的买入，加上其他一些原因，很多小麦都被转运从市场上消失了，因此最后出现了大波动，价格突破1.20美元。这是我的观点，也是我需要的唯一事实。我明白因为价格上涨积攒了力量，到了1.20美元时就会冲破上限。也就是说，过了1.20这个线，小麦价格的最小阻力线就确立了，随后的情形就不大相同了。

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我记得那天是美国的节假日，美国所有市场都闭市。加拿大温尼伯在开盘时却每蒲式耳涨了6美分，第二天美国市场开盘时，也涨了6美分。价格只是按照阻力最小的路线在前行而已。

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我说的这一切表明，我玩这些的主要方法就是研究市场行情。我只是了解了价格最可能的前行方向，我会多玩几次继续验证我的判断。我从一开始就注意观察，我的交易让市场价格发生了什么变化。

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我买股票的时候，喜欢以高价买入，以低价卖出，很多经验丰富的股民听到这种话时都会露出吃惊的表情。如果交易者总是坚持自己的投机利器，赚钱不是什么难事。就是说，等到最小阻力线明确了以后，行情上涨的时候买进，下跌的时候卖出，并且应该一路加码，要赚钱并不困难。例如在上涨时积攒头寸，先买进总量的五分之一，若没有多少利润，就要停止买入，因为很明显一开始就搞错了，或者至少是暂时错了，不管什么时候出了错，都不会有钱可赚的。行情记录说会上涨，不见得是说谎，完全是因为行情记录现在是说：“还没到时候”。

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我做棉花期货一直很成功。我有自己的理论，而且绝对遵照这个理论。如果我想做到四五万包，那么我就会像之前说的那样，研究好市场行情，搞明白到底是该买还是该卖。如果最小阻力线有上升迹象，我就会先买1万，然后市场如果还在上涨，我就会再来1万。如果我有20个点的利润，或者每包能赚1美元，我就会继续买2万包，然后达到满仓，我就是用这个方法赚钱的。可若我买了一两万包以后，有波动性的亏损，那就要平仓。这说明我看错了形势，或者只是暂时错了，可我不是提到过吗，不管哪种错，都不会有钱可赚。

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我坚持自己的那一套，借着它我在每次的棉花市场波动时，都能够保持住自己的实力。在建仓的时候，可能会用暂时亏损五六万的操作去验证市场。貌似这个验证有点太贵了，可实际却不见得。当市场正儿八经开始时，我损失的那点钱很快就会赚回来。不要不放过机会，在正确的时刻采取正确的行动，就会赚到钱。

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我已经说了我在市场交易时的整套方法。只在赚钱的时候下大注，而错的时候也就只亏损了那点用来测试的钱，这是个聪明的做法。如果按照我说的这种办法去玩，就会一直保持住有钱可赚的头寸，能在大赌注中获利不少。

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专业玩家们总能依靠自己的经验，建立各种玩法，这些都取决于他们如何对待投机这件事。我记得在棕榈滩的时候，碰到过一位老人，猛然间还想不起他叫什么名字。我知道他从南北战争时期就在华尔街混江湖，有人告诉我说他非常聪明，身经百战，因此他喜欢说世界上没什么新鲜事物，至少股市中是没有的。

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老人问了我很多问题，我告诉他我平时是怎么样做的，他点着头说：“没错，没错，你是对的，你的做事方式和思维方法，都对你非常有用。你很容易按照自己的想法行事，因为你投进去的钱是你最不重视的部分。我想起了帕特·赫恩这个人，你听过吧？他是个很有名的赌客，在我们那边开了户。他非常聪明，是个性情中人。他就靠炒股赚钱，所以会有人喜欢跟他交流要他提供建议。他从来都不肯说。如果有人直截了当地问他对他们持股的看法，他就会说出他在赛场上最喜欢的那句话：‘在你开赌之前一切都属未知。’他在我们公司炒股，会先选择很火的股票买100股，如果能上涨百分之一，他会继续买100股，接着涨的话还继续买。他经常说，自己玩这个游戏，不是为了把钱送给别人，所以他总会把止损单放在最后交易的那笔单子的价格以下1个点的地方。股价如果涨了他就继续，有个百分之一的回调，他就立刻平仓。他说如果赔到1个点以上，就是个大傻帽，不管赔的钱是原来保证金里面的还是浮动利润里面的，都一样。

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“你懂的，专业赌徒对长线没多少兴趣，只想着赚点稳当的钱。当然了，如果长线能做好，那也是不错的。帕特炒股从来不听信内幕消息，也不想着在一星期赚20点。他只想着能赚点让他过得不错的小钱。我在华尔街碰到过很多人，有成千上万的外行，而只有帕特一个人把投机炒股当作机会游戏，像轮盘赌博一样，可他的下注方式很实用。

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“帕特·赫恩去世以后，一个经常和帕特一起玩的人，用帕特的办法在拉卡万纳赚了十几万后就去做其他股票了。他觉得赚了很多了，不用再用帕特的方式玩了。当股价回调的时候，他没有止损，而是任由它发展，让亏损像利润一样持续扩大。最后当然是亏了个血本无归，还倒欠了几千块。

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“他硬撑了两三年，赔钱后还一直很狂热。但是只要他自制，我们也不反对他待在股市里。我记得他坦白承认过，没一直按照帕特的方式交易是一个很笨的决定。忽然有一天，他来找我，显得很激动，求我借他一些股票，他要卖掉。过去他一直是个不错的客户，是个好小伙儿，所以我愿意替他的账户担保，让他放空100股。

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“他放空了100股湖岸公司的股票，这是在1875年，是比尔·特瑞威尔斯正压制股市的那个阶段。我的这个叫罗伯斯的朋友，在点位正好时卖掉股票，股市下跌的过程中，他一直在卖，正如他之前遵守帕特的交易原则时常做的那样，很成功。

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“嗯，罗伯斯一连四天加码抛售，账面上就有了1.5万美元的利润。我看到他没有设止损单，就提醒了他，他告诉我大跌还没开始，他不想被一点儿反弹干掉。这个时候是8月，到了9月中旬的时候，他居然到了跟我借10美元，为他的第四个孩子买辆儿童车的地步。他没有一直用被证实过很有效的办法去投机，这也是很多人的问题。”老先生摇着头发表了长篇大论。

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他说得没错，我有时候感觉投机是个很不自然的工作，因为我觉得很多投机玩家都倾向于做违背本性的决定。谁都有弱点，这对投机来说是很严重的问题，而这些弱点在人们做其他事情时经常会被防范住，不像在炒股时这么危险。

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投机商最大的敌人是自己的内心。人性与希望和恐惧密不可分。在炒股时，当市场不利于你时，你无时无刻不在祈求这是最后一天，可你赔了的总是多于你想象的；当市场对你有利时，你又恐惧了，你怕第二天就会失去利润，所以会赶紧抽身，可这太早了。害怕使你不敢赚本应该赚的那些钱。成功者必须要一直与这两种扎牢在内心的本能做斗争，必须打败本能的冲动。当充满希望的时候，他该有所敬畏；当害怕的时候，他该满怀希望。他必须害怕小亏损会变成大亏损，希望小利润变成大利润。像普通人那样在股票上赌博，绝对是错误的。

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我从14岁开始投机，这是我做过的唯一一件事，我知道我在说什么。我有30年的交易经历，能赚几美元的小小交易我干过，几百万的巨大交易我也玩过，我得出了这样的结论：人在一段时间里可以战胜某只股票，可没有一个人能够战胜股市。人可能从棉花和谷物期货市场上赚钱，但没人能打败整个期货市场。就像赌马一样，人可能会赢一场比赛，但不可能战胜这种游戏。

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如果我知道怎么让这个结论更具说服力和影响力，我必定会去做。若有人不同意，也没什么关系，我自己知道这些结论是完全正确的，不容置疑的。

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THE recognition of our own mistakes should not benefit us any more than the study of our successes．But there is a natural tendency in all men to avoid punishment．When you associate certain mistakes with a licking，you do not hanker for a second dose，and，of course，all stock-market mistakes wound you in two tender spots—your pocketbook and your vanity．But I will tell you something curious：A stock speculator sometimes makes mistakes and knows that he is making them．And after he makes them he will ask himself why he made them；and after thinking over it cold-bloodedly a long time after the pain of punishment is over he may learn how he came to make them，and when，and at what particular point of his trade；but not why．And then he simply calls himself names and lets it go at that．

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Of course，if a man is both wise and lucky，he will not make the same mistake twice．But he will make any one of the ten thousand brothers or cousins of the original．The Mistake family is so large that there is always one of them around when you want to see what you can do in the fool-play line．

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To tell you about the first of my million-dollar mistakes I shall have to go back to this time when I first became a millionaire，right after the big break of October，1907．As far as my trading went，having a million merely meant more reserves．Money does not give a trader more comfort，because，rich or poor，he can make mistakes and it is never comfortable to be wrong．And when a millionaire is right his money is merely one of his several servants．Losing money is the least of my troubles．A loss never bothers me after I take it．I forget it overnight．But being wrong—not taking the loss—that is what does the damage to the pocketbook and to the soul．You remember Dickson G．Watts’ story about the man who was so nervous that a friend asked him what was the matter．

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“I can’t sleep，”answered the nervous one．

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“Why not？”asked the friend．

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“I am carrying so much cotton that I can’t sleep thinking about it．It is wearing me out．What can I do？”

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“Sell down to the sleeping point，”answered the friend．

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As a rule a man adapts himself to conditions so quickly that he loses the perspective．He does not feel the difference much—that is，he does not vividly remember how it felt not to be a millionaire．He only remembers that there were things he could not do that he can do now．It does not take a reasonably young and normal man very long to lose the habit of being poor．It requires a little longer to forget that he used to be rich．I suppose that is because money creates needs or encourages their multiplication．I mean that after a man makes money in the stock market he very quickly loses the habit of not spending．But after he loses his money it takes him a long time to lose the habit of spending．

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After I took in my shorts and went long in October，1907，I decided to take it easy for a while．I bought a yacht and planned to go off on a cruise in Southern waters．I am crazy about fishing and I was due to have the time of my life．I looked forward to it and expected to go any day．But I did not．The market wouldn’t let me．

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I always have traded in commodities as well as in stocks．I began as a youngster in the bucket shops．I studied those markets for years，though perhaps not so assiduously as the stock market．As a matter of fact，I would rather play commodities than stocks．There is no question about their greater legitimacy，as it were．It partakes more of the nature of a commercial venture than trading in stocks does．A man can approach it as he might any mercantile problem．It may be possible to use fictitious arguments for or against a certain trend in a commodity market；but success will be only temporary，for in the end the facts are bound to prevail，so that a trader gets dividends on study and observation，as he does in a regular business．He can watch and weigh conditions and he knows as much about it as anyone else．He need not guard against inside cliques．Dividends are not unexpectedly passed or increased overnight in the cotton market or in wheat or corn．In the long run commodity prices are governed but by one law—the economic law of demand and supply．The business of the trader in commodities is simply to get facts about the demand and the supply，present and prospective．He does not indulge in guesses about a dozen things as he does in stocks．It always appealed to me—trading in commodities．

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Of course the same things happen in all speculative markets．The message of the tape is the same．That will be perfectly plain to anyone who will take the trouble to think．He will find if he asks himself questions and considers conditions，that the answers will supply themselves directly．But people never take the trouble to ask questions，leave alone seeking answers．The average American is from Missouri everywhere and at all times except when he goes to the brokers’ offices and looks at the tape，whether it is stocks or commodities．The one game of all games that really requires study before making a play is the one he goes into without his usual highly intelligent preliminary and precautionary doubts．He will risk half his fortune in the stock market with less reflection than he devotes to the selection of a medium-priced automobile．

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This matter of tape reading is not so complicated as it appears．Of course you need experience．But it is even more important to keep certain fundamentals in mind．To read the tape is not to have your fortune told．The tape does not tell you how much you will surely be worth next Thursday at 1：35 P．M．The object of reading the tape is to ascertain，first，how and，next，when to trade—that is，whether it is wiser to buy than to sell．It works exactly the same for stocks as for cotton or wheat or corn or oats．

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You watch the market—that is，the course of prices as recorded by the tape—with one object：to determine the direction—that is，the price tendency．Prices，we know，will move either up or down according to the resistance they encounter．For purposes of easy explanation we will say that prices，like everything else，move along the line of least resistance．They will do whatever comes easiest，therefore they will go up if there is less resistance to an advance than to a decline；and vice versa．

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Nobody should be puzzled as to whether a market is a bull or a bear market after it fairly starts．The trend is evident to a man who has an open mind and reasonably clear sight，for it is never wise for a speculator to fit his facts to his theories．Such a man will，or ought to，know whether it is a bull or a bear market，and if he knows that he knows whether to buy or to sell．It is therefore at the very inception of the movement that a man needs to know whether to buy or to sell．

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Let us say，for example，that the market，as it usually does in those between-swings times，fluctuates within a range of ten points；up to 130 and down to 120．It may look very weak at the bottom；or，on the way up，after a rise of eight or ten points，it may look as strong as anything．A man ought not to be led into trading by tokens．He should wait until the tape tells him that the time is ripe．As a matter of fact，millions upon millions of dollars have been lost by men who bought stocks because they looked cheap or sold them because they looked dear．The speculator is not an investor．His object is not to secure a steady return on his money at a good rate of interest，but to profit by either a rise or a fall in the price of whatever he may be speculating in．Therefore the thing to determine is the speculative line of least resistance at the moment of trading；and what he should wait for is the moment when that line defines itself，because that is his signal to get busy．

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Reading the tape merely enables him to see that at 130 the selling had been stronger than the buying and a reaction in the price logically followed．Up to the point where the selling prevailed over the buying，superficial students of the tape may conclude that the price is not going to stop short of 150，and they buy．But after the reaction begins they hold on，or sell out at a small loss，or they go short and talk bearish．But at 120 there is stronger resistance to the decline．The buying prevails over the selling，there is a rally and the shorts cover．The public is so often whipsawed that one marvels at their persistence in not learning their lesson．

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Eventually something happens that increases the power of either the upward or the downward force and the point of greatest resistance moves up or down—that is，the buying at 130 will for the first time be stronger than the selling，or the selling at 120 be stronger than the buying．The price will break through the old barrier or movement-limit and go on．As a rule，there is always a crowd of traders who are short at 120 because it looked so weak，or long at 130 because it looked so strong，and，when the market goes against them they are forced，after a while，either to change their minds and turn or to close out．In either event they help to define even more clearly the price line of least resistance．Thus the intelligent trader who has patiently waited to determine this line will enlist the aid of fundamental trade conditions and also of the force of the trading of that part of the community that happened to guess wrong and must now rectify mistakes．Such corrections tend to push prices along the line of least resistance．

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And right here I will say that，though I do not give it as a mathematical certainty or as an axiom of speculation，my experience has been that accidents—that is，the unexpected or unforeseen—have always helped me in my market position whenever the latter has been based upon my determination of the line of least resistance．Do you remember that Union Pacific episode at Saratoga that I told you about？Well，I was long because I found out that the line of least resistance was upward．I should have stayed long instead of letting my broker tell me that insiders were selling stocks．It didn’t make any difference what was going on in the directors’ minds．That was something I couldn’t possibly know．But I could and did know that the tape said：“Going up！”And then came the unexpected raising of the dividend rate and the thirty point rise in the stock．At 164 prices looked mighty high，but as I told you before，stocks are never too high to buy or too low to sell．The price，per se，has nothing to do with establishing my line of least resistance．

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You will find in actual practice that if you trade as I have indicated any important piece of news given out between the closing of one market and the opening of another is usually in harmony with the line of least resistance．The trend has been established before the news is published，and in bull markets bear items are ignored and bull news exaggerated，and vice versa．Before the war broke out the market was in a very weak condition．There came the proclamation of Germany’s submarine policy．I was short one hundred and fifty thousand shares of stock，not because I knew the news was coming，but because I was going along the line of least resistance．What happened came out of a clear sky，as far as my play was concerned．Of course I took advantage of the situation and I covered my shorts that day．

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It sounds very easy to say that all you have to do is to watch the tape，establish your resistance points and be ready to trade along the line of least resistance as soon as you have determined it．But in actual practice a man has to guard against many things，and most of all against himself—that is，against human nature．That is the reason why I say that the man who is right always has two forces working in his favor—basic conditions and the men who are wrong．In a bull market bear factors are ignored．That is human nature，and yet human beings profess astonishment at it．People will tell you that the wheat crop has gone to pot because there has been bad weather in one or two sections and some farmers have been ruined．When the entire crop is gathered and all the farmers in all the wheat-growing sections begin to take their wheat to the elevators the bulls are surprised at the smallness of the damage．They discover that they merely have helped the bears．

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When a man makes his play in a commodity market he must not permit himself set opinions．He must have an open mind and flexibility．It is not wise to disregard the message of the tape，no matter what your opinion of crop conditions or of the probable demand may be．I recall how I missed a big play just by trying to anticipate the starting signal．I felt so sure of conditions that I thought it was not necessary to wait for the line of least resistance to define itself．I even thought I might help it arrive，because it looked as if it merely needed a little assistance．

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I was very bullish on cotton．It was hanging around twelve cents，running up and down within a moderate range．It was in one of those in-between places and I could see it．I knew I really ought to wait．But I got to thinking that if I gave it a little push it would go beyond the upper resistance point．

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I bought fifty thousand bales．Sure enough，it moved up．And sure enough，as soon as I stopped buying it stopped going up．Then it began to settle back to where it was when I began buying it．I got out and it stopped going down．I thought I was now much nearer the starting signal，and presently I thought I’d start it myself again．I did．The same thing happened．I bid it up，only to see it go down when I stopped．I did this four or five times until I finally quit in disgust．It cost me about two hundred thousand dollars．I was done with it．It wasn’t very long after that when it began to go up and never stopped till it got to a price that would have meant a killing for me—if I hadn’t been in such a great hurry to start．

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This experience has been the experience of so many traders so many times that I can give this rule：In a narrow market，when prices are not getting anywhere to speak of but move within a narrow range，there is no sense in trying to anticipate what the next big movement is going to be—up or down．The thing to do is to watch the market，read the tape to determine the limits of the get-nowhere prices，and make up your mind that you will not take an interest until the price breaks through the limit in either direction．A speculator must concern himself with making money out of the market and not with insisting that the tape must agree with him．Never argue with it or ask it for reasons or explanations．Stock-market post-mortems don’t pay dividends．

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Not so long ago I was with a party of friends．They got to talking wheat．Some of them were bullish and others bearish．Finally they asked me what I thought．Well，I had been studying the market for some time．I knew they did not want any statistics or analyses of conditions．So I said：“If you want to make some money out of wheat I can tell you how to do it．”

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They all said they did and I told them，“If you are sure you wish to make money in wheat just you watch it．Wait．The moment it crosses $1.20 buy it and you will get a nice quick play in it！”

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“Why not buy it now，at $1.14？”one of the party asked．

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“Because I don’t know yet that it is going up at all．”

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“Then why buy it at $1.20？It seems a mighty high price．”

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“Do you wish to gamble blindly in the hope of getting a great big profit or do you wish to speculate intelligently and get a smaller but much more probable profit？”

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They all said they wanted the smaller but surer profit，so I said，“Then do as I tell you．If it crosses $1.20 buy．”

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As I told you，I had watched it a long time．For months it sold between $1.10 and $1.20，getting nowhere in particular．Well，sir，one day it closed at above $1.I9．I got ready for it．Sure enough the next day it opened at $1.20?，and I bought．It went to $1.21，to $1.22，to $1.23，to $1.25，and I went with it．

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Now I couldn’t have told you at the time just what was going on．I didn’t get any explanations about its behaviour during the course of the limited fluctuations．I couldn’t tell whether the breaking through the limit would be up through $1.20 or down through $1.10，though I suspected it would be up because there was not enough wheat in the world for a big break in prices．

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As a matter of fact，it seems Europe had been buying quietly and a lot of traders had gone short of it at around $1.19．Owing to the European purchases and other causes，a lot of wheat had been taken out of the market，so that finally the big movement got started．The price went beyond the $1.20 mark．That was all the point I had and it was all I needed．I knew that when it crossed $1.20 it would be because the upward movement at last had gathered force to push it over the limit and something had to happen．In other words，by crossing $1.20 the line of least resistance of wheat prices was established．It was a different story then．

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I remember that one day was a holiday with us and all our markets were closed．Well，in Winnipeg wheat opened up six cents a bushel．When our market opened on the following day，it also was up six cents a bushel．The price just went along the line of least resistance．

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What I have told you gives you the essence of my trading system as based on studying the tape．I merely learn the way prices are most probably going to move．I check up my own trading by additional tests，to determine the psychological moment．I do that by watching the way the price acts after I begin．

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It is surprising how many experienced traders there are who look incredulous when I tell them that when I buy stocks for a rise I like to pay top prices and when I sell I must sell low or not at all．It would not be so difficult to make money if a trader always stuck to his speculative guns—that is，waited for the line of least resistance to define itself and began buying only when the tape said up or selling only when it said down．He should accumulate his line on the way up．Let him buy one-fifth of his full line．If that does not show him a profit he must not increase his holdings because he has obviously begun wrong；he is wrong temporarily and there is no profit in being wrong at any time．The same tape that said UP did not necessarily lie merely because it is now saying NOT YET．

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In cotton I was very successful in my trading for a long time．I had my theory about it and I absolutely lived up to it．Suppose I had decided that my line would be forty to fifty thousand bales．Well，I would study the tape as I told you，watching for an opportunity either to buy or to sell．Suppose the line of least resistance indicated a bull movement．Well，I would buy ten thousand bales．After I got through buying that，if the market went up ten points over my initial purchase price，I would take on another ten thousand bales．Same thing．Then，if I could get twenty points’ profit，or one dollar a bale，I would buy twenty thousand more．That would give me my line—my basis for my trading．But if after buying the first ten or twenty thousand bales，it showed me a loss，out I’d go．I was wrong．It might be I was only temporarily wrong．But as I have said before it doesn’t pay to start wrong in anything．

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What I accomplished by sticking to my system was that I always had a line of cotton in every real movement．In the course of accumulating my full line I might chip out fifty or sixty thousand dollars in these feeling-out plays of mine．This looks like a very expensive testing，but it wasn’t．After the real movement started，how long would it take me to make up the fifty thousand dollars I had dropped in order to make sure that I began to load up at exactly the right time？No time at all！It always pays a man to be right at the right time．

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As I think I also said before，this describes what I may call my system for placing my bets．It is simple arithmetic to prove that it is a wise thing to have the big bet down only when you win，and when you lose to lose only a small exploratory bet，as it were．If a man trades in the way I have described，he will always be in the profitable position of being able to cash in on the big bet．

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Professional traders have always had some system or other based upon their experience and governed either by their attitude toward speculation or by their desires．I remember I met an old gentleman in Palm Beach whose name I did not catch or did not at once identify．I knew he had been in the Street for years，way back in Civil War times，and somebody told me that he was a very wise old codger who had gone through so many booms and panics that he was always saying there was nothing new under the sun and least of all in the stock market．

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The old fellow asked me a lot of questions．When I got through telling him about my usual practice in trading he nodded and said，“Yes！Yes！You’re right．The way you’re built，the way your mind runs，makes your system a good system for you．It comes easy for you to practice what you preach，because the money you bet is the least of your cares．I recollect Pat Hearne．Ever hear of him？Well，he was a very well-known sporting man and he had an account with us．Clever chap and nervy．He made money in stocks，and that made people ask him for advice．He would never give any．If they asked him point-blank for his opinion about the wisdom of their commitments he used a favourite race-track maxim of his：“You can’t tell till you bet．”He traded in our office．He would buy one hundred shares of some active stock and when，or if，it went up 1 per cent he would buy another hundred．On another point’s advance，another hundred shares；and so on．He used to say he wasn’t playing the game to make money for others and therefore he would put in a stop-loss order one point below the price of his last purchase．When the price kept going up he simply moved up his stop with it．On a 1 per cent reaction he was stopped out．He declared he did not see any sense in losing more than one point，whether it came out of his original margin or out of his paper profits．

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“You know，a professional gambler is not looking for long shots，but for sure money．Of course long shots are fine when they come in．In the stock market Pat wasn’t after tips or playing to catch twenty-points-a-week advances，but sure money in sufficient quantity to provide him with a good living．Of all the thousands of outsiders that I have run across in Wall Street，Pat Hearne was the only one who saw in stock speculation merely a game of chance like faro or roulette，but，nevertheless，had the sense to stick to a relatively sound betting method．

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“After Hearne’s death one of our customers who had always traded with Pat and used his system made over one hundred thousand dollars in Lackawanna．Then he switched over to some other stock and because he had made a big stake he thought he need not stick to Pat’s way．When a reaction came，instead of cutting short his losses he let them run—as though they were profits．Of course every cent went．When he finally quit he owed us several thousand dollars．

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“He hung around for two or three years．He kept the fever long after the cash had gone；but we did not object as long as he behaved himself．I remember that he used to admit freely that he had been ten thousand kinds of an ass not to stick to Pat Hearne’s style of play．Well，one day he came to me greatly excited and asked me to let him sell some stock short in our office．He was a nice enough chap who had been a good customer in his day and I told him I personally would guarantee his account for one hundred shares．

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“He sold short one hundred shares of Lake Shore．That was the time Bill Travers hammered the market，in 1875．My friend Roberts put out that Lake Shore at exactly the right time and kept selling it on the way down as he had been wont to do in the old successful days before he forsook Pat Hearne’s system and instead listened to hope’s whispers．

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“Well，sir，in four days of successful pyramiding，Roberts’ account showed him a profit of fifteen thousand dollars．Observing that he had not put in a stop-loss order I spoke to him about it and he told me that the break hadn’t fairly begun and he wasn’t going to be shaken out by any one-point reaction．This was in August．Before the middle of September he borrowed ten dollars from me for a baby carriage—his fourth．He did not stick to his own proved system．That’s the trouble with most of them，”and the old fellow shook his head at me．

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And he was right．I sometimes think that speculation must be an unnatural sort of business，because I find that the average speculator has arrayed against him his own nature．The weaknesses that all men are prone to are fatal to success in speculation—usually those very weaknesses that make him likable to his fellows or that he himself particularly guards against in those other ventures of his where they are not nearly so dangerous as when he is trading in stocks or commodities．

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The speculator’s chief enemies are always boring from within．It is inseparable from human nature to hope and to fear．In speculation when the market goes against you you hope that every day will be the last day—and you lose more than you should had you not listened to hope—to the same ally that is so potent a success-bringer to empire builders and pioneers，big and little．And when the market goes your way you become fearful that the next day will take away your profit，and you get out—too soon．Fear keeps you from making as much money as you ought to．The successful trader has to fight these two deep-seated instincts．He has to reverse what you might call his natural impulses．Instead of hoping he must fear；instead of fearing he must hope．He must fear that his loss may develop into a much bigger loss，and hope that his profit may become a big profit．It is absolutely wrong to gamble in stocks the way the average man does．

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I have been in the speculative game ever since I was fourteen．It is all I have ever done．I think I know what I am talking about．And the conclusion that I have reached after nearly thirty years of constant trading，both on a shoestring and with millions of dollars back of me，is this：A man may beat a stock or a group at a certain time，but no man living can beat the stock market！A man may make money out of individual deals in cotton or grain，but no man can beat the cotton market or the grain market．It’s like the track．A man may beat a horse race，but he cannot beat horse racing．

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If I knew how to make these statements stronger or more emphatic I certainly would．It does not make any difference what anybody says to the contrary．I know I am right in saying these are incontrovertible statements．

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序号 英文/音标 中文解释 更多操作

cold-blooded

[kəʊld’blʌdɪd]

adj.(动物)冷血的;无情的

pocketbook

[’pɒkɪtbʊk]

n.财力;皮夹子;袖珍本; 必须花费的钱

multiplication

[ˌmʌltɪplɪ’keɪʃn]

n.增加;繁殖;乘法运算

yacht

[jÉ’t]

n.快艇,游艇;

appeal

[ə’piːl]

①[U][C]呼吁，要求;

precautionary

[prɪ’kɔːʃənəri]

adj.预先警戒的;预防的;留心的

ascertain

[ˌæsə’teɪn]

vt.确定;查明;探知

vice

[vaɪs]

adj.副的;代理的

inception

[ɪn’sepʃn]

n.开始;起初;取得学位

speculative

[’spekjələtɪv]

adj.推测的;推理的;思索的;投机的

persistence

[pə’sɪstəns]

n.坚持;毅力

rectify

[’rektɪfaɪ]

vt.改正;【化】精馏;【电】整流

dividend

[’dɪvɪdend]

n.股息;红利;被除数;彩金;回报

submarine

[ˌsʌbmə’riːn]

n.潜水艇

smallness

[smɔːlnəs]

n.小;贫乏;小气;弱小

felted

[’feltɪd]

v. 把 ... 制成毡(使 ... 粘结)

in-between

[ˌɪnbɪ’twiːn]

adj.在中间的

disgust

[dɪs’ɡʌst]

n.厌恶;憎恶;反感

bearish

[’beərɪʃ]

adj.如熊一样笨拙的;粗暴的;(股票)行情看跌的

blindly

[’blaɪndli]

adv.摸索地;盲目地;蛮干地

behaviour

[bɪˈheɪvɪə]

n.行为

trader

[’treɪdə(r)]

n.商人;商船

bushel

[’bʊʃl]

n.大量;蒲式耳(容量等于八加仑或约36.368升)

arithmetic

[ə’rɪθmətɪk]

n.算术

codger

[’kɒdʒə(r)]

n.行为古怪的人;有怪癖的人

cent

[sent]

n.分

roulette

[ruː’let]

n.轮盘赌;点线机;转迹线

chap

[tʃæp]

vt. 使(皮肤)裂口，裂开；变粗糙;

forsake

[fə’seɪk]

v.放弃;断念;抛弃

carriage

[’kærɪdʒ]

n.四轮马车

likable

[ˈlaɪkəbl]

adj.可爱的;值得喜欢的

gamble

[’ɡæmbl]

v.赌博;冒险;孤注一掷

shoestring

[’ʃuːstrɪŋ]

adj.小本经营的;微小的;像鞋带一样狭长的

incontrovertible

[ˌɪnkɒntrə’vɜːtəbl]

adj.不容置疑的;无可辩驳的

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