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股票大作手回忆录|Memoirs of Stock Makers

第八章|Chapter VIII

属类： 双语小说 【分类】其他读物 -[作者: 爱德温-勒菲弗] 阅读：[8612]
主要讲述了利弗莫尔的一生，不但用鲜活的笔触，复原了他充满激情的生活历程，更从专业的角度，详细介绍了利弗莫尔的各种技巧，并用最准确的表述，无限接近了他的思想最深邃处。
自工业化洪流激荡整个社会后，资本市场就以其无限魅力，强劲地席卷更多人参与其中。在过往100年的金钱游戏里，无疑出现许多顶尖高手，但最被后人不能忘怀的非杰西·利弗莫尔莫属。对数字的极端敏感加之惊人的记忆力，使不到20岁的利弗莫尔，就掌握了一套无往不胜的技术方法，最终被以盘剥“肥羊”为生的所有对赌行拒之门外。随即他转战华尔街，历经几次沉浮，炼就了一套辨识市场趋势的“秘诀”。凭着市场趋势这一“最佳搭档”，数度击溃幕后操纵者，成为当之无愧的投机之王
《 字+字- 页+页- 字+字- 页+页- 》
1
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1906年夏天，经过太平洋铁路股票事件后，我对内幕消息和别人的劝告更加不在乎了，也就是说不管谁多友好，多替我着想，我也不会听他的建议、推测和质疑了。过去很多事都证明我比周围很多人对行情记录的理解都到位，而不是我的虚荣心证明这一点。而且我具备比哈丁兄弟公司其他客户更好的条件，我能完全避免投机偏见。我对做多和放空都没有侧重，就是一直在避免犯错误。

1
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THE Union Pacific incident in Saratoga in the summer of 1906 made me more independent than ever of tips and talk—that is，of the opinions and surmises and suspicions of other people，however friendly or however able they might be personally．Events，not vanity，proved for me that I could read the tape more accurately than most of the people about me．I also was better equipped than the average customer of Harding Brothers in that I was utterly free from speculative prejudices．The bear side doesn’t appeal to me any more than the bull side，or vice versa．My one steadfast prejudice is against being wrong．

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我小的时候，就总能从看到的事实中形成自己的观点，这是我得到结论的唯一方法。我没办法从别人的建议中获得有用价值，而只靠自己掌握的事实。如果我相信了你确信的东西，那是因为我确实完全相信。我做多头，是因为经过分析后我觉得会上涨，但你肯定知道很多看起来很聪明的人觉得会上涨是因为他们手里有股票。我绝不让自己手里的股票和先入为主的观念左右我的思想，这就是我为什么总说，坚决不和股市行情记录争论。如果股市行情突然变化或者不合乎你的预估就让你大发雷霆，正如得了肺炎就生肺的气一样，是非常不值得的。

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Even as a lad I always got my own meanings out of such facts as I observed．It is the only way in which the meaning reaches me．I cannot get out of facts what somebody tells me to get．They are my facts，don’t you see？If I believe something you can be sure it is because I simply must．When I am long of stocks it is because my reading of conditions has made me bullish．But you find many people，reputed to be intelligent，who are bullish because they have stocks．I do not allow my possessions—or my prepossessions either—to do any thinking for me．That is why I repeat that I never argue with the tape．To be angry at the market because it unexpectedly or even illogically goes against you is like getting mad at your lungs because you have pneumonia．

3
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我慢慢明白了，对于炒股而言，除了要分析股情变化以外还需要注意哪些方面。帕特里奇坚持在牛市保持住头寸的重要性，这使我把主要的精力用在了判断市场性质上。我开始意识到抓住大的股市变化才能多赚钱。不管推动大波动起步的因素可能是什么，事实俱在，大波动能够持续下去，不是内部炒作或是金融家的技巧造成的结果，而是基本形势。不管谁反对，大波动一定会照着背后的推动力量，尽其所能地快速推动到尽头。

3
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I had been gradually approaching the full realization of how much more than tape reading there was to stock speculation．Old man Partridge’s insistence on the vital importance of being continuously bullish in a bull market doubtless made my mind dwell on the need above all other things of determining the kind of market a man is trading in．I began to realize that the big money must necessarily be in the big swing．Whatever might seem to give a big swing its initial impulse，the fact is that its continuance is not the result of manipulation by pools or artifice by financiers，but depends upon basic conditions．And no matter who opposes it，the swing must inevitably run as far and as fast and as long as the impelling forces determine．

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萨拉托加事件以后，我更加清晰地明白，或者说，我更加成熟地知道，既然整个市场变化多端，我也就不必像以前想的一样去研究个别股票的走势。而且因为限制交易量，也能通盘买卖，如果某些股票的卖出数量超过了总股本的一定比例后，做空头就很危险，这个比例由哪只股票、在哪里、在谁手里来决定。但是如果他有钱的话，他可以卖出100万股所有挂牌的股票，也不会遭遇轧空。以前，有些内线人士经常从空头方面赚取暴利，他们也细心培养对垄断和轧空的恐惧，从中大赚其钱。

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After Saratoga I began to see more clearly—perhaps I should say more maturely—that since the entire list moves in accordance with the main current there was not so much need as I had imagined to study individual plays or the behaviour of this or the other stock．Also，by thinking of the swing a man was not limited in his trading．He could buy or sell the entire list．In certain stocks a short line is dangerous after a man sells more than a certain percentage of the capital stock，the amount depending upon how，where and by whom the stock is held．But he could sell a million shares of the general list—if he had the price—without the danger of being squeezed．A great deal of money used to be made periodically by insiders in the old days out of the shorts and their carefully fostered fears of corners and squeezes．

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应该要做的事是在牛市时看多，在熊市时看空，这听起来很傻，是不是？但是，我必须要紧抓这一基本原则不放，才能够看出要把这个原则付诸实施，真正的意义是要预测可能性。我花了很长时间才明白怎么样按这个原则炒股，客观地说，我必须要提醒你一下，那时候我还没那么多钱那样玩。你如果有足够的钱，就可以创建很多头寸，在股市波动幅度大的时候赚大钱。

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Obviously the thing to do was to be bullish in a bull market and bearish in a bear market．Sounds silly，doesn’t it？But I had to grasp that general principle firmly before I saw that to put it into practice really meant to anticipate probabilities．It took me a long time to learn to trade on those lines．But in justice to myself I must remind you that up to then I had never had a big enough stake to speculate that way．A big swing will mean big money if your line is big，and to be able to swing a big line you need a big balance at your broker’s．

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我总是必须，或者认为必须靠炒股赚取日常生活费用，这实际上影响了我增加资金从事根据波动交易的方法，这种方法利润比较高，但是比较缓慢，因此交易成本立刻就变得比较昂贵。

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I always had—or felt that I had—to make my daily bread out of the stock market．It interfered with my efforts to increase the stake available for the more profitable but slower and therefore more immediately expensive method of trading on swings．

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可现在我不仅增强了自信，而且经纪人也不会觉得我是个运气好的投机分子，他们在我这儿赚了很多钱，而我现在顺理成章地成了他们的明星客户。能赚钱的客户对哪个经纪人来说都是宝贝。

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But now not only did my confidence in myself grow stronger but my brokers ceased to think of me as a sporadically lucky Boy Plunger．They had made a great deal out of me in commissions，but now I was in a fair way to become their star customer and as such to have a value beyond the actual volume of my trading．A customer who makes money is an asset to any broker’s office．

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那时候，我已经不满足于只研究行情记录，我也不让自己置身于股市波动外，这样一来，我就需要从不同角度来研究股市，从具体的股情，到基本的原则；从股价的涨跌，到交易的基本条件。

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The moment I ceased to be satisfied with merely studying the tape I ceased to concern myself exclusively with the daily fluctuations in specific stocks，and when that happened I simply had to study the game from a different angle．I worked back from the quotation to first principles；from price fluctuations to basic conditions．

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一直以来，我都会研究每天的股市信息。所有的玩家都这样。可那些信息大多都是小道消息，有的是故意放的错误信息，有的是个人看法。我连颇受青睐的每周评述都觉得不尽如人意，财经编辑们的观点通常不是我的观点。于他们来说，根据实际情况整理出个结论不算什么，但对我却至关重要，而且我们对时间因素的评估也差得很远，所以我觉得每周末分析本周详情还没有预估下周走势重要。

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Of course I had been reading the daily dope regularly for a long time．All traders do．But much of it was gossip，some of it deliberately false，and the rest merely the personal opinion of the writers．The reputable weekly reviews when they touched upon underlying conditions were not entirely satisfactory to me．The point of view of the financial editors was not mine as a rule．It was not a vital matter for them to marshal their facts and draw their conclusions from them，but it was for me．Also there was a vast difference in our appraisal of the element of time．The analysis of the week that had passed was less important to me than the forecast of the weeks that were to come．

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多年来，我一直都处于经验不足、懵懂无知、缺乏资金的综合状态，而现在我却感受到一种有了大发现的愉悦。我知道了为什么想在纽约多赚钱结果却总赔本。现在有钱了，也有经验和自信了，我特别想赶紧试试这把新钥匙，可却忽略了门上的另外一把锁——时间之锁。这样的大意也很正常，可不得不花钱买教训——每进阶一步都要付出代价。

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For years I had been the victim of an unfortunate combination of inexperience，youth and insufficient capital．But now I felt the elation of a discoverer．My new attitude toward the game explained my repeated failures to make big money in New York．But now with adequate resources，experience and confidence，I was in such a hurry to try the new key that I did not notice that there was another lock on the door—a time lock！It was a perfectly natural oversight．I had to pay the usual tuition—a good whack per each step forward．

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我分析了1906年的情势，觉得资金市场前景可怕，很多真正的财富都毁于一旦。所有人迟早都会颇感压力，所以没谁能够帮到谁。那种艰苦的日子并不是起源于拿价值1万美元的房子，去交换一车厢价值8000美元的赛马，而是起源于房子被火完全烧毁，而且大多数赛马因为铁路车祸死亡。那种艰苦是因为波尔战争中，实际好用的现金随着炮火化为灰烬，而且千百万美元耗在南非，喂养没有生产力的士兵，这表示我们不能像过去一样，从英国投资者那里得到协助。旧金山地震和火灾，以及其他天灾人祸都深刻波及每个人——制造商、农民、商人、劳工、百万富翁。铁路业受损严重，一切都难逃厄运。如此一来，只有一件事能做，那就是卖掉股票。

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I studied the situation in 1906 and I thought that the money outlook was particularly serious．Much actual wealth the world over had been destroyed．Everybody must sooner or later feel the pinch，and therefore nobody would be in position to help anybody．It would not be the kind of hard times that comes from the swapping of a house worth ten thousand dollars for a carload of racehorses worth eight thousand dollars．It was the complete destruction of the house by fire and of most of the horses by a railroad wreck．It was good hard cash that went up in cannon smoke in the Boer War，and the millions spent for feeding nonproducing soldiers in South Africa meant no help from British investors as in the past．Also，the earthquake and the fire in San Francisco and other disasters touched everybody—manufacturers，farmers，merchants，labourers and millionaires．The railroads must suffer greatly．I figured that nothing could stave off one peach of a smash．Such being the case there was but one thing to do—sell stocks！

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我说过，在决定交易方向之前，我已经注意到我最初的交易经常都能够获利。现在我决定做空，毫无疑问，股市正在滑向正儿八经的熊市，所以我确信能在股市上大捞一笔。

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I told you I had already observed that my initial transaction，after I made up my mind which way I was going to trade，was apt to show me a profit．And now when I decided to sell I plunged．Since we undoubtedly were entering upon a genuine bear market I was sure I should make the biggest killing of my career．

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股价涨涨跌跌，交易冷淡后变得活跃，我账面上的浮动资金变少了，亏损增大了。终于到了那么一天，连最后一个做空的股民也没法坚持叙述真正空头市场的故事，所以我也平了空头的头寸。就是这个时候，如果不这样，我就穷得连一张明信片都买不起了。我元气大伤，可是留得青山在，不愁没柴烧。

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The market went off．Then it came back．It shaded off and then it began to advance steadily．My paper profits vanished and my paper losses grew．One day it looked as if not a bear would be left to tell the tale of the strictly genuine bear market．I couldn’t stand the gaff．I covered．It was just as well．If I hadn’t I wouldn’t have had enough left to buy a postal card．I lost most of my fur，but it was better to live to fight another day．

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我出错了，可错在何处呢？我在空头市场中看淡后市，这是正确的。我做了空头，这也没错。但我卖掉得太早了，这点代价就高了，我的头寸没错可时机掌握得不对。但是市场已经滑向没法遏制的崩盘状态，我只有等待，等价格不再下跌时，将那点保证金全拿出来卖掉股票。这一次我对了，因为只有那天一个机会，第二天就开始回稳，我就会再次上当。所以我就研究股票走势，回补空仓，等待着机会。时机到了，我就继续卖。而股市又一如既往下跌，不久又忽然涨起来。

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I had made a mistake．But where？I was bearish in a bear market．That was wise．I had sold stocks short．That was proper．I had sold them too soon．That was costly．My position was right but my play was wrong．However，every day brought the market nearer to the inevitable smash．So I waited and when the rally began to falter and pause I let them have as much stock as my sadly diminished margins permitted．I was right this time—for exactly one whole day，for on the next there was another rally．Another big bite out of yours truly！So I read the tape and covered and waited．In due course I sold again—and again they went down promisingly and then they rudely rallied．

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股市好像要尽力把我打回在对赌行时期的那种传统又简单的交易形式中去，我首次做了个精确计划，不再只看一两种股票，而是注重整体股市。我觉得如果一直坚持就会赚钱。那时候，我还没有很全面的交易方法，不然我会像上次说的那样，在股市下跌时卖掉空头，也就不会丢掉保证金。我可能会出错，但不会有损失。你看，我已经看到了很多真相，但不知道怎么用。其实，我这种片面的观察不但没好处，还对我有所妨碍。

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It looked as if the market were doing its best to make me go back to my old and simple ways of bucket-shop trading．It was the first time I had worked with a definite forward-looking plan embracing the entire market instead of one or two stocks．I figured that I must win if I held out．Of course at that time I had not developed my system of placing my bets or I would have put out my short line on a declining market，as I explained to you the last time．I would not then have lost so much of my margin．I would have been wrong but not hurt．You see，I had observed certain facts but had not learned to co-ordinate them．My incomplete observation not only did not help but actually hindered．

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我觉得对自己所犯的错误进行反思，总能为自己带来好处，所以我发现在熊市时不失去空头头寸的确尽善尽美，不过，股市行情还是需要研究，这样才能找到合适的出击时机。一开始如果你对了，那么你就不会看到自己获利的头寸遭到严重威胁，然后你会发现，把头寸牢牢掌握住，也不是什么难事。

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I have always found it profitable to study my mistakes．Thus I eventually discovered that it was all very well not to lose your bear position in a bear market，but that at all times the tape should be read to determine the propitiousness of the time for operating．If you begin right you will not see your profitable position seriously menaced；and then you will find no trouble in sitting tight．

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我如今对自己的观察判断很自信，期望和习惯都没影响到我的观察，而且我有了更多的工具，可以检验我看到的事实，并且用各种方式，测试我的观点是否正确。但是，1906年的那一连串的反弹的确差点让我损失了保证金。

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Of course today I have greater confidence in the accuracy of my observations—in which neither hopes nor hobbies play any part—and also I have greater facilities for verifying my facts as well as for variously testing the correctness of my views．But in 1906 the succession of rallies dangerously impaired my margins．

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那一年我27岁，已经有了12年炒股经验。我在首次利用即将到来的危机做生意时就发现，我一直在使用望远镜。从我第一次看到暴风雨即将来临的黑云，到靠着大崩盘获利之间，距离显然比我想象的远太多了，我甚至开始怀疑自己是否真的看到我认为我看得这么清楚的东西。我们有很多警讯，而且短期利率飞跃上升，有的经济师们还在满怀信心地发表评论，至少他们对记者这么说，而股市持续回稳揭穿了末日预言家的谎言。难道我一开始就看淡股市是个错误吗？还是因为卖得早了些而犯了暂时性的错误？

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I was nearly twenty-seven years old．I had been at the game twelve years．But the first time I traded because of a crisis that was still to come I found that I had been using a telescope．Between my first glimpse of the storm cloud and the time for cashing in on the big break the stretch was evidently so much greater than I had thought that I began to wonder whether I really saw what I thought I saw so clearly．We had had many warnings and sensational ascensions in call-money rates．Still some of the great financiers talked hopefully—at least to newspaper reporters—and the ensuing rallies in the stock market gave the lie to the calamity howlers．Was I fundamentally wrong in being bearish or merely temporarily wrong in having begun to sell short too soon？

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我觉得自己卖得有些早，可是我也没法控制。然后，股市又开始下跌，机会来了，我又全部卖掉，结果股票价格又反弹了，而且创造了纪录。

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I decided that I began too soon，but that I really couldn’t help it．Then the market began to sell off．That was my opportunity．I sold all I could，and then stocks rallied again，to quite a high level．

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我被彻底清理出局了。

20
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It cleaned me out．

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我做对了，却破产了。

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There I was—right and busted！

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告诉你吧，这事很让人吃惊，可事情就是这样：我看到前面有一大堆钱，旁边牌子上大字写着“请自取”。旁边有辆马车，车身上写着“劳伦斯·利文斯顿运输公司”。我拿着一把新铁铲，周围连一个人都没有，所以我在打算挖金矿时，没有竞争对手，这是比其他人先看到钱堆的好处。如果人们能停下来，就可以看到，但是他们或者在看棒球赛，或者在开车兜风，或者准备买大房子。这是我第一次看到这么多钱，我自然而然地朝它们奔去，可是我还没有到达，风就开始倒吹，我摔倒了。钱还在那里，可是我的铁铲丢了，那辆马车也不见了。这就是起跑早的结果。我太想确认我看到的是钱而不是幻觉了。我清楚地知道自己看到了，可只想着这个美妙的发现会带给我什么，却没考虑距离这堆钱多远。我应该走过去的，而不是快速奔过去。

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I tell you it was remarkable．What happened was this：I looked ahead and saw a big pile of dollars．Out of it stuck a sign．It had“Help yourself，”on it，in huge letters．Beside it stood a cart with“Lawrence Livingston Trucking Corporation”painted on its side．I had a brand-new shovel in my hand．There was not another soul in sight，so I had no competition in the gold-shoveling，which is one beauty of seeing the dollar-heap ahead of others．The people who might have seen it if they had stopped to look were just then looking at baseball games instead，or motoring or buying houses to be paid for with the very dollars that I saw．That was the first time that I had seen big money ahead，and I naturally started toward it on the run．Before I could reach the dollar-pile my wind went back on me and I fell to the ground．The pile of dollars was still there，but I had lost the shovel，and the wagon was gone．So much for sprinting too soon！I was too eager to prove to myself that I had seen real dollars and not a mirage．I saw，and knew that I saw．Thinking about the reward for my excellent sight kept me from considering the distance to the dollar-heap．I should have walked and not sprinted．

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这就是发生的一切。我迫不及待，没有停下来判定时机是否适于全力放空。在这样的情形下，我本该借助行情记录。如此，我学会了在熊市刚开始时，就算看淡后面的市场，也要确定会不会有引擎回火的风险，不然的话，就不要急着大量地卖掉。

23
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That is what happened．I didn’t wait to determine whether or not the time was right for plunging on the bear side．On the one occasion when I should have invoked the aid of my tape-reading I didn’t do it．That is how I came to learn that even when one is properly bearish at the very beginning of a bear market it is well not to begin selling in bulk until there is no danger of the engine back-firing．

24
-

多年来，我一直在哈丁兄弟公司交易股票，他们对我很信任，我们合作也很愉快。我觉得他们认为我必定会在短时期内卷土重来。他们清楚以我的运气，只需要一个开始，就能够复原得超过已经损失掉的头寸。他们从我身上挣了不少，也会继续挣得更多，所以只要我的信誉还好，在那里继续交易就不会有问题。

24
-

I had traded in a good many thousands of shares at Harding’s office in all those years，and，moreover，the firm had confidence in me and our relations were of the pleasantest．I think they felt that I was bound to be right again very shortly and they knew that with my habit of pushing my luck all I needed was a start and I’d more than recover what I had lost．They had made a great deal of money out of my trading and they would make more．So there was no trouble about my being able to trade there again as long as my credit stood high．

25
-

受到这一连串的打击，我已经不再那么自信了，或者说我该变得细心些，因为我已经在破产的边缘，可以做的只有慎重和等待。其实我在大赌之前就该这样，而不是亡羊补牢。下次开始时，我一定要搞清楚。如果一个人不出错，他在那一个月时间就可以拥抱世界，如果不吃一堑长一智，他绝对不能拥有什么好东西。

25
-

The succession of spankings I had received made me less aggressively cocksure；perhaps I should say less careless，for of course I knew I was just so much nearer to the smash．All I could do was wait watchfully，as I should have done before plunging．It wasn’t a case of locking the stable after the horse was stolen．I simply had to be sure，the next time I tried．If a man didn’t make mistakes he’d own the world in a month．But if he didn’t profit by his mistakes he wouldn’t own a blessed thing．

26
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呵，先生们，一个晴朗的早上，我走到市中心，又觉得自己充满了信心。这一次没什么值得怀疑，我看到所有报纸的经济板块都刊登着一条告示，这又证明了我在出手前没理智等待。告示是北太平洋和北方铁路增发新股的广告。为了让股民更方便，采取的是分期付款的方式。这在华尔街还是很新鲜的东西，这对我不光是个不好的事情，还是个打击。

26
-

Well，sir，one fine morning I came downtown feeling cocksure once more．There wasn’t any doubt this time．I had read an advertisement in the financial pages of all the newspapers that was the high sign I hadn’t had the sense to wait for before plunging．It was the announcement of a new issue of stock by the Northern Pacific and Great Northern roads．The payments were to be made on the installment plan for the convenience of the stockholders．This consideration was something new in Wall Street．It struck me as more than ominous．

27
-

北方铁路这么多年一直保持着没有跌破面值，还宣布过又将有一股红利，包括持股人有平价购买北方铁路新增股票的权利。因为股价总是比面值高，所以这个权利非常珍贵。不过此时金融市场不景气，就算实力最强的银行也不能保证可以向股东支付现金购买这种便宜货。北方铁路股价是330美元左右。

27
-

For years the unfailing bull item on Great Northern preferred had been the announcement that another melon was to be cut，said melon consisting of the right of the lucky stockholders to subscribe at par to a new issue of Great Northern stock．These rights were valuable，since the market price was always way above par．But now the money market was such that the most powerful banking houses in the country were none too sure the stockholders would be able to pay cash for the bargain．And Great Northern preferred was selling at about 330！

28
-

我走进公司分部就对艾德·哈丁说：“现在是个好机会，卖吧，我该行动了，你看看那则广告。”

28
-

As soon as I got to the office I told Ed Harding，“The time to sell is right now．This is when I should have begun．Just look at that ad，will you？”

29
-

他早看过了。我按照自己的看法说了这个告示的含义，但是他不太能够看出我们随时面临着破产的危险。他觉得在大卖前还是等一等比较好，因为市场一般会先有大反弹，如果我等一等，价格可能比较低，但是操作会比较安全。

29
-

He had seen it．I pointed out what the bankers’ confession amounted to in my opinion，but he couldn’t quite see the big break right on top of us．He thought it better to wait before putting out a very big short line by reason of the market’s habit of having big rallies．If I waited prices might be lower，but the operation would be safer．

30
-

“艾德，”我说，“开始得越迟，开始后的崩溃就会越严重。那个告示代表的是银行家的立场，他们害怕的是我们想要的。这对我们而言，是熊市要来的征兆，这是我们想看到的。如果我有1000万，就会马上放进去。”

30
-

“Ed，”I said to him，“the longer the delay in starting the sharper the break will be when it does start．That ad is a signed confession on the part of the bankers．What they fear is what I hope．This is a sign for us to get aboard the bear wagon．It is all we needed．If I had ten million dollars I’d stake every cent of it this minute．”

31
-

我必须要持续跟他争论，就一个健全的人而言，他对我从那个让人惊讶的广告做出的唯一推论不太满意。对我来说却够了，可对这里大多数人来说都不够。我卖掉了一些股票，可是太少了。

31
-

I had to do some more talking and arguing．He wasn’t content with the only inferences a sane man could draw from that amazing advertisement．It was enough for me，but not for most of the people in the office．I sold a little；too little．

32
-

没过几天，圣保罗公司就很亲民地发布了一张发行新证券的告示，我忘了是股票还是权利证书了。不过不要紧，我已经看到上面的付款日期在之前宣布过的北太平洋和北方铁路公司缴款日期的前面。这么明显的事情，就像他们拿着话筒向那两条铁路股票发出了挑战，要抢华尔街所剩无几的现金。诚然，圣保罗公司的银行家们生怕华尔街的钱不够三家集资，但他们肯定不能说：“你先，你先，亲爱的伙计。”如果真的很缺钱，而且他们也都清楚，那么接下来会怎样？铁路公司缺钱却没钱，这会引发什么后果呢？

32
-

A few days later St．Paul very kindly came out with an announcement of an issue of its own；either stock or notes，I forget which．But that doesn’t matter．What mattered then was that I noticed the moment I read it that the date of payment was set ahead of the Great Northern and Northern Pacific payments，which had been announced earlier．It was as plain as though they had used a megaphone that grand old St．Paul was trying to beat the two other railroads to what little money there was floating around in Wall Street．The St．Paul’s bankers quite obviously feared that there wasn’t enough for all three and they were not saying，“After you，my dear Alphonse！”If money already was that scarce—and you bet the bankers knew—what would it be later？The railroads needed it desperately．It wasn’t there．What was the answer？

33
-

肯定是卖掉股票啊！大家在那一周都紧盯股市，但基本上看不出什么情况，聪明的操控者却在那时候明白了很多事情，这就是差别。

33
-

Sell ’em！Of course！The public，with their eyes fixed on the stock market，saw little—that week．The wise stock operators saw much—that year．That was the difference．

34
-

而在我看来，是该结束优柔寡断的时候了，我当即就下了决心。就在那天早上，我真正根据此后我所遵循的路线，打我的第一场战役。我对哈丁谈了我的看法和决定。我准备按照330美元的价格卖掉北方铁路股票，用更高的价格卖掉其他股票，哈丁没有反对。我从之前受到的教训里获得了很多经验，所以卖的时候很讲究策略。

34
-

For me，that was the end of doubt and hesitation．I made up my mind for keeps then and there．That same morning I began what really was my first campaign along the lines that I have since followed．I told Harding what I thought and how I stood，and he made no objections to my selling Great Northern preferred at around 330，and other stocks at high prices．I profited by my earlier and costly mistakes and sold more intelligently．

35
-

不管是不是偶然，反正我很快就恢复了名声和信誉，在证券商那里做出正确判断真不错。这次我完全没错，因为我是在分析了股市的影响因素后得出的结果，而不是靠感觉和行情记录。我不是在猜测，而是在预测无可避免的状况。想卖股票并不需要鼓足多少勇气，除了股价在下跌外，我根本看不出会发生任何其他状况，我必须根据这点行动，对不对？除此之外，我还能做其他事情吗？

35
-

My reputation and my credit were re?stablished in a jiffy．That is the beauty of being right in a broker’s office，whether by accident or not．But this time I was cold-bloodedly right，not because of a hunch or from skilful reading of the tape，but as the result of my analysis of conditions affecting the stock market in general．I wasn’t guessing．I was anticipating the inevitable．It did not call for any courage to sell stocks．I simply could not see anything but lower prices，and I had to act on it，didn’t I？What else could I do？

36
-

整个股市行情都很疲软，不久之后就会出现反弹，很多人过来对我说，已经跌到了不能再跌的地步。大玩家们中间有很多卖空的人，他们想通过卖空赚大钱，这事很有把握又容易，他们是不会心慈手软的。通常我会感谢他们，甚至不跟他们争论，生怕他们觉得我对他们的建议没有感恩之心。

36
-

The whole list was soft as mush．Presently there was a rally and people came to me to warn me that the end of the decline had been reached．The big fellows，knowing the short interest to be enormous，had decided to squeeze the stuffing out of the bears，and so forth．It would set us pessimists back a few millions．It was a cinch that the big fellows would have no mercy．I used to thank these kindly counselors．I wouldn’t even argue，because then they would have thought that I wasn’t grateful for the warnings．

37
-

跟我一起在亚特兰大待过的朋友现在很焦灼，经历了那次地震后，他开始对我的预感深信不疑，因为我靠着感觉卖掉了太平洋铁路的股票，赚了25万。他甚至把这一切都归功于上帝。他对我在萨拉托加玩的那一次也很理解，因为只要与股票有关的交易，他都能理解。个股的消息确实会事前对股市产生影响，可这种说整个股市都会下滑的事情，又让他很愤慨。这样的消息对人们有什么好呢？人们怎么知道该怎么办呢？

37
-

The friend who had been in Atlantic City with me was in agony．He could understand the hunch that was followed by the earthquake．He couldn’t disbelieve in such agencies，since I had made a quarter of a million by intelligently obeying my blind impulse to sell Union Pacific．He even said it was Providence working in its mysterious way to make me sell stocks when he himself was bullish．And he could understand my second UP．trade in Saratoga because he could understand any deal that involved one stock，on which the tip definitely fixed the movement in advance，either up or down．But this thing of predicting that all stocks were bound to go down used to exasperate him．What good did that kind of dope do anybody？How in blazes could a gentleman tell what to do？

38
-

这些让我想起了帕特里奇的那句口头禅：“好了，你晓得，现在是牛市。”似乎这就是真实情况，对很多聪明人而言，这好像就够了。可对那些刚经历过失败，损失了15点、20点还坚守着的人来说，看到回升了3个点，就深信到了底线，马上要上涨了。

38
-

I recalled old Partridge’s favourite remark—“Well，this is a bull market，you know”—as though that were tip enough for anybody who was wise enough；as in truth it was．It was very curious how，after suffering tremendous losses from a break of fifteen or twenty points，people who were still hanging on，welcomed a three-point rally and were certain the bottom had been reached and complete recovery begun．

39
-

有一天，朋友来问我：“你平仓了没？”

39
-

One day my friend came to me and asked me，“Have you covered？”

40
-

我说：“我为什么要平仓？”

40
-

“Why should I？”I said．

41
-

“你有这个世上最好的理由啊。”

41
-

“For the best reason in the world．”

42
-

“什么理由？”

42
-

“What reason is that？”

43
-

“赚钱，已经跌到底了，接下来必定上涨，难道不是吗？”

43
-

“To make money．They’ve touched bottom and what goes down must come up．Isn’t that so？”

44
-

“是啊。”我说，“只有到底了，才会上涨，可不会马上就涨，中间会反复涨跌好多天。现在还不到涨的时候，它还没有跌到底呢。”

44
-

“Yes，”I answered．“First they sink to the bottom．Then they come up；but not right away．They’ve got to be good and dead a couple of days．It isn’t time for these corpses to rise to the surface．They are not quite dead yet．”

45
-

一位记性很好的老友听到我的话，他是那种总是想到某些事情的人。他说，有一次威廉·斯格特觉得股市会下跌，他遇到了一位认为会上涨的人，二人就讨论起来。那人说：“现在股市这么坚挺，为什么你觉得会下跌呢？”斯格特不屑地说：“是啊，像个死人那样硬挺挺的。”斯格特到过一家公司，他要求看一下报表，职员问他：“你持有我们公司的股份吗？”斯格特说：“我应该说，我卖掉了你们的2万股。”

45
-

An old-timer heard me．He was one of those chaps that are always reminded of something．He said that William R．Travers，who was bearish，once met a friend who was bullish．They exchanged market views and the friend said，“Mr．Travers，how can you be bearish with the market so stiff？”and Travers retorted，“Yes！Th-the s-s-stiffness of d-death！”It was Travers who went to the office of a company and asked to be allowed to see the books．The clerk asked him，“Have you an interest in this company？”and Travers answered，“I sh-should s-say I had！I’m sh-short t-t-twenty thousand sh-shares of the stock ！”

46
-

反弹越来越无力，我尽力抛空股票，每次我卖出北方铁路几千股时，价格就会跌几个点。我觉得其他几只股票也比较疲软，就卖掉了些，它们都在跌。只有一家股票让人惊讶，它就是里丁公司。

46
-

Well，the rallies grew feebler and feebler．I was pushing my luck for all I was worth．Every time I sold a few thousand shares of Great Northern preferred the price broke several points．I felt out weak spots elsewhere and let ’em have a few．All yielded，with one impressive exception；and that was Reading．

47
-

所有股票都在下跌，只有里丁公司股票却像直布罗陀海峡的礁石一般纹丝不动。大家都说这只股票被人垄断囤积着，迹象表明就是这样。人们对我说，卖空里丁公司的股票简直是自杀。交易大厅里也有跟我一样看淡股市的其他人，可要是有人建议他们卖掉里丁的股票，他们就会紧张地喊救命。我已经卖掉了些里丁公司的股票，也自然想寻找其他可以出手的地方，而避开坚不可摧的地方。通过观察我找到了几个比较容易赚钱的股票。

47
-

When everything else hit the toboggan slide Reading stood like the Rock of Gibraltar．Everybody said the stock was cornered．It certainly acted like it．They used to tell me it was plain suicide to sell Reading short．There were people in the office who were now as bearish on everything as I was．But when anybody hinted at selling Reading they shrieked for help．I myself had sold some short and was standing pat on it．At the same time I naturally preferred to seek and hit the soft spots instead of attacking the more strongly protected specialties．My tape reading found easier money for me in other stocks．

48
-

关于里丁公司背后的基金集团，我听过很多种说法，那可是个很强大的集团。朋友说，他们握着很多低价时候买进的股票，平均持股的价格比现行价要低。此外，这个集团的主要成员与一些银行之间有非常扎实的关系，正是利用那些银行的钱，他们才把大量里丁公司的股票收进手中。价格只要不下滑，他们与银行之间的关系就牢不可破。其中一个成员有300多万的账面浮动利润，完全可以承受住一定程度的下跌，他们手中的股票是可以对抗大量空头的。股民们经常会看着股价，舔着嘴唇，拿出一两千股试探一下市场，可是没法压低这只股票的价格，只好平仓后去其他地方赚些容易赚的钱。不管什么时候，我看到这只股票，也会多卖些，卖到刚好足够让我自己相信，我确实是遵照新的交易原则行事，而不是操作喜欢的股票。

48
-

I heard a great deal about the Reading bull pool．It was a mighty strong pool．To begin with they had a lot of low-priced stock，so that their average was actually below the prevailing level，according to friends who told me．Moreover，the principal members of the pool had close connections of the friendliest character with the banks whose money they were using to carry their huge holdings of Reading．As long as the price stayed up the bankers’ friendship was staunch and steadfast．One pool member’s paper profit was upward of three millions．That allowed for some decline without causing fatalities．No wonder the stock stood up and defied the bears．Every now and then the room traders looked at the price，smacked their lips and proceeded to test it with a thousand shares or two．They could not dislodge a share，so they covered and went looking elsewhere for easier money．Whenever I looked at it I also sold a little more—just enough to convince myself that I was true to my new trading principles and wasn’t playing favourites．

49
-

以前，里丁公司或许耍过我，行情单不断透漏这个意思：“不要理这只股票。”我却感觉不是这样，我觉得会出现一次整体的滑坡，不管是有钱没钱，谁都逃不掉。

49
-

In the old days the strength of Reading might have fooled me．The tape kept on saying，“Leave it alone！”But my reason told me differently．I was anticipating a general break，and there were not going to be any exceptions，pool or no pool．

50
-

我喜欢单枪匹马行事，跟在对赌行时期一样，以后还会这样，我就是这样的思维方式。我必须自己研究和思考，但是我可以对你讲，股市开始照我的方向走的时候，我首次觉得自己在这个世界上有了一个真诚的好伙伴，那就是股市基本行情。它们不遗余力地帮我，虽然有时候反映情势的速度特别慢，但是只要我愿意等待，它们总是很可靠。我这不是在用感觉和分析股市行情的小伎俩对抗时机，而是利用逻辑分析来赚钱。

50
-

I have always played a lone hand．I began that way in the bucket shops and have kept it up．It is the way my mind works．I have to do my own seeing and my own thinking．But I can tell you after the market began to go my way I felt for the first time in my life that I had allies—the strongest and truest in the world：underlying conditions．They were helping me with all their might．Perhaps they were a trifle slow at times in bringing up the reserves，but they were dependable，provided I did not get too impatient．I was not pitting my tape-reading knack or my hunches against chance．The inexorable logic of events was making money for me．

51
-

重要的是要正确无误，知道自己正确，并且付诸行动。总体行情——我真正的盟友，它说：“下跌了！”可里丁却不管这个，它可是在欺负我们。看着里丁公司股份坚挺不动，好像什么都没发生，我开始生气。因为还没下跌，所以它是股市里可以放空的最好股票。而且他们集团手里握着一大把股票，如果资金一直缺乏的话，他们就没办法一直这样持有下去。总有那么一天，银行的人不会比我们这些普通人好到哪里去，这只股票会跟其他股票一样下跌。如果里丁公司的股票不下跌的话，那么我的这套理论就是错误的，我是错误的，事实是错误的，逻辑也是错误的。

51
-

The thing was to be right；to know it and to act accordingly．General conditions，my true allies，said“Down！”and Reading disregarded the command．It was an insult to us．It began to annoy me to see Reading holding firmly，as though everything were serene．It ought to be the best short sale in the entire list because it had not gone down and the pool was carrying a lot of stock that it would not be able to carry when the money stringency grew more pronounced．Some day the bankers’ friends would fare no better than the friendless public．The stock must go with the others．If Reading didn’t decline，then my theory was wrong；I was wrong；facts were wrong；logic was wrong．

52
-

我估计是人们都不愿意卖掉，所以股价一直不跌。所以，有一天，我向两个经纪人各自发了一张要卖掉4000股的单子。

52
-

I figured that the price held because the Street was afraid to sell it．So one day I gave to two brokers each an order to sell four thousand shares，at the same time．

53
-

你该瞧瞧这只垄断股，如果放空的话，就等于自杀。可是我这样的做法还是对它造成了冲击，它也开始下跌了，我就又卖掉了几千股，我卖的时候股价是111美元，没过多久我就按照92美元，回补了这只股票的空头。

53
-

You ought to have seen that cornered stock，that it was sure suicide to go short of，take a headlong dive when those competitive orders struck it．I let ’em have a few thousand more．The price was 111 when I started selling it．Within a few minutes I took in my entire short line at 92．

54
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自此以后，我的日子就好起来了。1907年2月，我把所有的空头都回补到位。那时候北方铁路的股票下跌了六七十点，其他的股票也在跌。我赚了一大笔，可是我之所以全部回补，是因为觉得股市行情反映了近期的情况。我觉得股价会猛烈回升，但我也没那么大信心认为需要转变操作方向。我还不想完全改变我的做法，市场也不允许我马上就交易。我在对赌行的时候，赔了我第一次赚的1万美元的原因，正是我没有在乎时机是否成熟，天天买进卖出。这样的错误我不会再犯。而且别忘了，不久前我才赔得惨不忍睹，就是因为我提前就预估到了会大跌，可不到时候就卖掉了很多。如今，我已经赚了大钱，希望获利落袋为安，好让自己觉得正确。以前反弹曾经导致我大赔，我可不能再被它洗劫一空。我没有让自己闲着，而是到了佛罗里达。我热爱钓鱼，也需要休息。在那里我就可以一边钓鱼一边休息。另外，华尔街与棕榈滩之间有直通线路。

54
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I had a wonderful time after that，and in February of 1907 I cleaned up．Great Northern preferred had gone down sixty or seventy points，and other stocks in proportion．I had made a good bit，but the reason I cleaned up was that I figured that the decline had discounted the immediate future．I looked for a fair recovery，but I wasn’t bullish enough to play for a turn．I wasn’t going to lose my position entirely．The market would not be right for me to trade in for a while．The first ten thousand dollars I made in the bucket shops I lost because I traded in and out of season，every day，whether or not conditions were right．I wasn’t making that mistake twice．Also，don’t forget that I had gone broke a little while before because I had seen this break too soon and started selling before it was time．Now when I had a big profit I wanted to cash in so that I could feel I had been right．The rallies had broken me before．I wasn’t going to let the next rally wipe me out．Instead of sitting tight I went to Florida．I love fishing and I needed a rest．I could get both down there．And besides，there are direct wires between Wall Street and Palm Beach．

序号 英文/音标 中文解释 更多操作

steadfast

[’stedfɑːst]

adj.坚定的;毫不动摇的

pneumonia

[njuː’məʊniə]

n.肺炎

impel

[ɪm’pel]

v.驱使;激励

periodically

[ˌpɪəri’ɒdɪkli]

adv.周期性地;定期地

stake

[steɪk]

n.桩;赌注;利害关系

sporadically

[spə’rædɪkli]

adv.偶发地;零星地

forecast

[’fɔːkɑːst]

n.预测;预报

whack

[wæk]

v.敲击;重打;瓜分

smash

[smæʃ]

vt. 打碎，粉碎;

undoubted

[ʌn’daʊtɪd]

adj.无疑的

postal

[’pəʊstl]

adj.邮政的

rude

[ruːd]

adj.粗鲁无礼的;原始的;未加工的;粗糙的;猛烈的

hinder

[’hɪndə(r)]

v.阻碍;打扰

menace

[’menəs]

n.威胁;恐吓;讨厌的人(物)

impair

[ɪm’peə(r)]

vt.损害;削弱【计算机】 损伤.

bearish

[’beərɪʃ]

adj.如熊一样笨拙的;粗暴的;(股票)行情看跌的

bust

[bʌst]

n.半身像;胸部;搜查;失败

sprint

[sprɪnt]

vi.全力奔跑;冲刺

felted

[’feltɪd]

v. 把 ... 制成毡(使 ... 粘结)

watchful

[’wɒtʃfl]

adj.注意的;警惕的;不眠的;醒的

ominous

[’ɒmɪnəs]

adj.不祥的;预兆的

stockholder

[’stɒkhəʊldə(r)]

n.股东.

cent

[sent]

n.分

advertisement

[əd’vɜːtɪsmənt]

n.广告

scarce

[skeəs]

adj.缺乏的;不足的;稀少的;罕见的

earlier

[’ɜːlɪə]

adj.早的;初期的

skilful

[’skɪlfl]

adj.熟练的;巧妙的;技术好的.

kindly

[’kaɪndli]

adj.和蔼的;温和的;爽快的

blaze

[bleɪz]

n. 火；火焰;

tremendous

[trə’mendəs]

adj.巨大的;惊人的

corpse

[kɔːps]

n.尸体

retort

[rɪ’tɔːt]

v.反驳;回嘴;反击

shriek

[ʃriːk]

v.尖叫;叫喊

dislodge

[dɪs’lɒdʒ]

v.逐出;用力移出;移走

inexorable

[ɪn’eksərəbl]

adj.无情的;不可阻挡的;坚决不变的

friendless

[’frendləs]

adj.没有朋友的;无依无靠的

dive

[daɪv]

n.潜水;跳水

Florida

[’flɒrɪdə]

n.佛罗里达(美国州名)

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