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股票大作手回忆录|Memoirs of Stock Makers

第七章|Chapter VII

属类： 双语小说 【分类】其他读物 -[作者: 爱德温-勒菲弗] 阅读：[6211]
主要讲述了利弗莫尔的一生，不但用鲜活的笔触，复原了他充满激情的生活历程，更从专业的角度，详细介绍了利弗莫尔的各种技巧，并用最准确的表述，无限接近了他的思想最深邃处。
自工业化洪流激荡整个社会后，资本市场就以其无限魅力，强劲地席卷更多人参与其中。在过往100年的金钱游戏里，无疑出现许多顶尖高手，但最被后人不能忘怀的非杰西·利弗莫尔莫属。对数字的极端敏感加之惊人的记忆力，使不到20岁的利弗莫尔，就掌握了一套无往不胜的技术方法，最终被以盘剥“肥羊”为生的所有对赌行拒之门外。随即他转战华尔街，历经几次沉浮，炼就了一套辨识市场趋势的“秘诀”。凭着市场趋势这一“最佳搭档”，数度击溃幕后操纵者，成为当之无愧的投机之王
《 字+字- 页+页- 字+字- 页+页- 》
1
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我会告诉别人自己是看好市场，还是不太看好市场，但我不对别人说买进还是卖出。熊市来了，所有股票都会跌，牛市来了则正好相反。不过，不包括由战争引发的那种熊市，因为军火方面的股票会因为战争而上涨。我说的是一般情况。但是通常而言，人们不愿意考虑到底是牛市还是熊市，他们只想很清晰地知道买什么或者卖什么，不想用脑子去思考，要他们数数从地上捡起来的钱他们都嫌麻烦。

1
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I NEVER hesitate to tell a man that I am bullish or bearish．But I do not tell people to buy or sell any particular stock．In a bear market all stocks go down and in a bull market they go up．I don’t mean of course that in a bear market caused by a war，ammunition shares do not go up．I speak in a general sense．But the average man doesn’t wish to be told that it is a bull or a bear market．What he desires is to be told specifically which particular stock to buy or sell．He wants to get something for nothing．He does not wish to work．He doesn’t even wish to have to think．It is too much bother to have to count the money that he picks up from the ground．

2
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我没有那么懒惰，我只是觉得单独研究一只股票比通盘考虑股市要方便。同样，考虑一只股票的起伏比考虑全盘股市的起落要简单。我明白我必须要改变这种想法，而我确实也做到了。

2
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Well，I wasn’t that lazy，but I found it easier to think of individual stocks than of the general market and therefore of individual fluctuations rather than of general movements．I had to change and I did．

3
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人们想搞懂炒股的基本原则没那么简单，之前我总说最好在上涨的市场里买进股票，但如今重要的不是能不能买到便宜的股票，或者卖出高价股票，而是在正确的时机买进或卖出。当我在看空的时候卖掉股票，卖出价格肯定是一次比一次低。买入股票则相反，我一定是逐步向上承接。我肯定在股价上涨时买，不会在下跌时做多头。

3
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People don’t seem to grasp easily the fundamentals of stock trading．I have often said that to buy on a rising market is the most comfortable way of buying stocks．Now，the point is not so much to buy as cheap as possible or go short at top prices，but to buy or sell at the right time．When I am bearish and I sell a stock，each sale must be at a lower level than the previous sale．When I am buying，the reverse is true．I must buy on a rising scale．I don’t buy long stock on a scale down，I buy on a scale up．

4
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假设，我正在买进某只股票。我会用110美元买入2000股，如果我买进后股票上涨到了111美元，那对我就是有益的，上涨1个点，说明盈利了。是啊，因为我是对的，所以会跟进2000股。如果股市还在上涨，我还会买2000股。比如价格到了114美元，我认为这时候我已经暂时买够了，我有了可以干一把的资本。我用平均111又3/4的价格做多6000股，现在涨到114美元，我就不会再买，而是等着看看。我估计涨到差不多了就会有回调，我想看看股市在回调之后有什么表现。很有可能会跌到第三次买2000股时候的价格，如果又上涨后跌回112又1/4，然后回升，到达113又3/4时，我会马上花市价买4000股。此时，我用113又3/4的价格买到了4000股后，就知道哪里有问题，再下个单子测试一下，也就是卖掉1000股来测试市场的反应。但是，如果我在111又3/4时买进4000股，在114时买进2000股，在114又1/2时买进500股，那么如果股市继续上涨，最后500股我就在115又1/2时成交，这时候我就知道我的操作是对的。就是这个买入4000股的经历，使得我知道了在那种特殊状态买特殊的股票是不是对——当然了，我已经把整个行情考虑明白了，在牛市的时候，我从来不买太便宜或者太容易买到的股票。

4
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Let us suppose，for example，that I am buying some stock．I’ll buy two thousand shares at 110．If the stock goes up to 111 after I buy it I am，at least temporarily，right in my operation，because it is a point higher；it shows me a profit．Well，because I am right I go in and buy another two thousand shares．If the market is still rising I buy a third lot of two thousand shares．Say the price goes to 114．I think it is enough for the time being．I now have a trading basis to work from．I am long six thousand shares at an average of 111? and the stock is selling at 114．I won’t buy any more just then．I wait and see．I figure that at some stage of the rise there is going to be a reaction．I want to see how the market takes care of itself after that reaction．It will probably react to where I got my third lot．Say that after going higher it falls back to 112?，and then rallies．Well，just as it goes back to 113? I shoot an order to buy four thousand at the market of course．Well，if I get that four thousand at 113? I know something is wrong and I’ll give a testing order—that is，I’ll sell one thousand shares to see how the market takes it．But suppose that of the order to buy the four thousand shares that I put in when the price was 113? I get two thousand at 114 and five hundred at 114? and the rest on the way up so that for the last five hundred I pay 115?．Then I know I am right．It is the way I get the four thousand shares that tells me whether I am right in buying that particular stock at that particular time—for of course I am working on the assumption that I have checked up general conditions pretty well and they are bullish．I never want to buy stocks too cheap or too easily．

5
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我记得我听过一个有关迪肯·怀特的故事。怀特那时候是华尔街的一位大股民，一位特别好的老人，精明又有魄力。据说他在原来属于他的那个时期干过很漂亮的事。

5
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I remember a story I heard about Deacon S．V．White when he was one of the big operators of the Street．He was a very fine old man，clever as they make them，and brave．He did some wonderful things in his day，from all I’ve heard．

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故事发生在早年，那时候制糖公司是市场上最容易迸出火花的股票，公司董事长哈维梅尔的权力也处于巅峰时期。我和前辈们聊过，知道哈维梅尔和他手下人有实力有资本，足以应付那些用他们的股票投机的人。前辈们说哈维梅尔在这只股票上修理过很多人，比其他人在其他股票上修理过的人都要多，所以经纪人在这些人炒股的时候，一般都会使绊子而不是帮忙。

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It was in the old days when Sugar was one of the most continuous purveyors of fireworks in the market．H．O．Havemeyer，president of the company，was in the heyday of his power．I gather from talks with the old-timers that H．O．and his following had all the resources of cash and cleverness necessary to put through successfully any deal in their own stock．They tell me that Havemeyer trimmed more small professional traders in that stock than any other insider in any other stock．As a rule，the floor traders are more likely to thwart the insiders’ game than help it．

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有一天，一个认识怀特的人激动地跑进怀特办公室，说：“你让我有好消息了要告诉你，要是对你有用，你会替我挂进几百股，对不对？”他稍微停了一下后，喘着气等待回答。

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One day a man who knew Deacon White rushed into the office all excited and said，“Deacon，you told me if I ever got any good information to come to you at once with it and if used it you’d carry me for a few hundred shares．”He paused for breath and for confirmation．

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迪肯像往常一样冷静地看着他说：“我忘了是不是说过，不过你要真有对我有用的好消息，我就会报答你。”

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The deacon looked at him in that meditative way he had and said，“I don’t know whether I ever told you exactly that or not，but I am willing to pay for information that I can use．”

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“那好，我确实有好消息。”

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“Well，I’ve got it for you．”

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“是吗，那就太好了。”迪肯和善地说。

10
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“Now，that’s nice，”said the deacon，so mildly that the man with the info swelled up and said，“Yes，sir，deacon．”Then he came closer so nobody else would hear and said，“H．O．Havemeyer is buying Sugar．”

11
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那人站起来说：“是的，先生。”然后凑近了些，生怕别人听到，“哈维梅尔买了制糖公司的股票。”

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“Is he？”asked the deacon quite calmly．

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“真的？”迪肯很冷静地问。

12
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It peeved the informant，who said impressively：“Yes，sir．Buying all he can get，deacon．”

13
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这让来人很生气，他强调说：“是的，迪肯先生，他是有多少就买了多少。”

13
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“My friend，are you sure？”asked old S．V．

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“你确定？”迪肯问。

14
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“Deacon，I know it for a positive fact．The old inside gang are buying all they can lay their hands on．It’s got something to do with the tariff and there’s going to be a killing in the common．It will cross the preferred．And that means a sure thirty points for a starter．”

15
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“迪肯，我证据确凿，那些老东西正在不遗余力地买呢，估计跟关税有关吧，制糖公司的普通股能让人大赚，会超过特别股的价钱。我觉得会赚30个点。”

15
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“D’ you really think so？”And the old man looked at him over the top of the old-fashioned silver-rimmed spectacles that he had put on to look at the tape．

16
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“你真这样觉得？”迪肯透过旧式银丝眼镜盯着他，这副眼镜本来是看股市行情记录用的。

16
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“Do I think so？No，I don’t think so；I know so．Absolutely！Why，deacon，when H．O．Havemeyer and his friends buy Sugar as they’re doing now they’re never satisfied with anything less than forty points net．I shouldn’t be surprised to see the market get away from them any minute and shoot up before they’ve got their full lines．There ain’t as much of it kicking around the brokers’ offices as there was a month ago．”

17
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“我真这么认为。据我了解就是这样，绝对的！怎么了，迪肯？哈维梅尔和他的朋友都在买制糖公司的股票，不能赚40点以上他们不会罢休，在他们吃货吃到饱之前，股市如果暴涨起来，我一点儿都不会感到意外的。经纪商手里的筹码已经没有一个月前那么多了。”

17
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“He’s buying Sugar，eh？”repeated the deacon absently．

18
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“他在买制糖公司股票，是吧？”迪肯若有所思地问。

18
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“Buying it？Why，he’s scooping it in as fast as he can without putting up the price on himself．”

19
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“买？他那简直就是吞啊，能吞多少就吞多少，根本不限定价格。”

19
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“So？”said the deacon．That was all．

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“是吗？”迪肯简单地说。

20
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But it was enough to nettle the tipster，and he said，“Yes，sir-ree！And I call that very good information．Why，it’s absolutely straight．”

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可这已经把送信的人惹急了，他说：“是的，先生。我觉得这是个特别好的信息，绝对没有水分啊。”

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“Is it？”

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“是吧？”

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“Yes；and it ought to be worth a whole lot．Are you going to use it？”

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“是的，这个消息很有用，你不需要吗？”

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“Oh，yes．I’m going to use it．”

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“哦，是的，我需要。”

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“When？”asked the information bringer suspiciously．

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“什么时候？”那人狐疑道。

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“Right away．”And the deacon called：“Frank！”It was the first name of his shrewdest broker，who was then in the adjoining room．

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“就是现在，立刻。”迪肯喊了一声，“弗兰克。”弗兰克是他最聪明的经纪人，就在旁边屋里。

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“Yes，sir，”said Frank．

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“先生。”弗兰克说。

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“I wish you’d go over to the Board and sell ten thousand Sugar．”

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“我想让你去一趟交易所，卖掉1万股制糖公司的股票。”

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“Sell？”yelled the tipster．There was such suffering in his voice that Frank，who had started out at a run，halted in his tracks．

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“卖？”送信的人叫道，他的声音很惊讶，把已经往外走的弗兰克都喊停了。

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“Why，yes，”said the deacon mildly．

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“怎么了？是卖啊。”迪肯温和地说。

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“But I told you H．O．Havemeyer was buying it！”

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“可我说的是哈维梅尔在买啊。”

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“I know you did，my friend，”said the deacon calmly；and turning to the broker：“Make haste，Frank！”

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“伙计，我知道。”迪肯镇定地说完后转身对弗兰克说，“弗兰克，快去。”

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The broker rushed out to execute the order and the tipster turned red．

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弗兰克快步去办了，送信的人满脸通红。

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“I came in here，”he said furiously，“with the best information I ever had．I brought it to you because I thought you were my friend，and square．I expected you to act on it—”

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“我来你这里，”他生气地说，“带来了大好消息，我把你当朋友才告诉你，我觉得你很正直，我想让你根据这个消息动起来……”

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“I am acting on it，”interrupted the deacon in a tranquillising voice．

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“我正在动啊。”迪肯平静地打断了他。

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“But I told you H．O．and his gang were buying！”

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“可我告诉你的是哈维梅尔他们在买进。”

36
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“That’s right．I heard you．”

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“是的，我听明白了。”

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“Buying！Buying！I said buying！”shrieked the tipster．

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“买，买，我说的是他们在买。”送信人大吼起来。

38
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“Yes，buying！That is what I understood you to say，”the deacon assured him．He was standing by the ticker，looking at the tape．

39
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“是买，我听清了。”迪肯说。他站在自动收报机前，盯着行情记录看。

39
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“But you are selling it．”

40
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“但是你却在卖。”

40
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“Yes；ten thousand shares．”And the deacon nodded．“Selling it，of course．”

41
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“对，卖1万股。”老头点点头。

41
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He stopped talking to concentrate on the tape and the tipster approached to see what the deacon saw，for the old man was very foxy．While he was looking over the deacon’s shoulder a clerk came in with a slip，obviously the report from Frank．The deacon barely glanced at it．He had seen on the tape how his order had been executed．

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然后，他开始沉默，专心盯着记录。送信人也凑过来，想知道他在看什么，这个老家伙很狡猾。正当他想通过迪肯的肩膀看时，有个职员拿着一张单子走进来了，正是弗兰克的汇报单。迪肯只看了一眼。他从行情记录上已经看出了情况。

42
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It made him say to the clerk，“Tell him to sell another ten thousand Sugar．”

43
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于是他对那职员说：“让他再卖1万股。”

43
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“Deacon，I swear to you that they really are buying the stock ！”

44
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“迪肯，我发誓，他们真的在买啊。”

44
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“Did Mr．Havemeyer tell you？”asked the deacon quietly．

45
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“是哈维梅尔对你说的？”迪肯一如既往地镇定。

45
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“Of course not！He never tells anybody anything．He would not bat an eyelid to help his best friend make a nickel．But I know this is true．”

46
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“当然不是，他不会对任何人说任何事情的，他连帮最好的朋友赚一毛钱都不干。可我知道这是真的。”

46
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“Do not allow yourself to become excited，my friend．”And the deacon held up a hand．He was looking at the tape．The tip-bringer said，bitterly：

47
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“别激动，伙计。”迪肯抬了抬手，继续看行情记录。送信人无奈地说：“要是早知道你要做的事情跟我期望的相反，我就不该来浪费你的时间，也浪费了我的时间，可你若因此而赔惨了，我也不会高兴，我为你感到惋惜，迪肯。不好意思，我要去其他地方验证我的信息了。”

47
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“If I had known you were going to do the opposite of what I expected I’d never have wasted your time or mine．But I am not going to feel glad when you cover that stock at an awful loss．I’m sorry for you，deacon．Honest！If you’ll excuse me I’ll go elsewhere and act on my own information．”

48
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“我在做呀，我明白自己不太了解股市，至少没你和你的朋友哈维梅尔那么了解，可是我也略知一二，我现在就是根据经验和你带来的消息做出正确举动。像我这样一个人，在华尔街混了这么多年，任何人为我感到惋惜，我都会很感谢。镇定些，朋友。”

48
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“I’m acting on it．I think I know a little about the market；not as much，perhaps，as you and your friend H．O．Havemeyer，but still a little．What I am doing is what my experience tells me is the wise thing to do with the information you brought me．After a man has been in Wall Street as long as I have he is grateful for anybody who feels sorry for him．Remain calm，my friend．”

49
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那人紧盯着迪肯，非常佩服他的判断和勇气。

49
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The man just stared at the deacon，for whose judgment and nerve he had great respect．

50
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刚才那个职员很快又进来了，把一份单子交给迪肯。迪肯看过后说：“现在让弗兰克买3万股。”

50
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Pretty soon the clerk came in again and handed a report to the deacon，who looked at it and said：“Now tell him to buy thirty thousand Sugar．Thirty thousand ！”

51
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职员快步离开了，送信的人小声嘀咕了一句，瞧着那个头发花白的老狐狸。

51
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The clerk hurried away and the tipster just grunted and looked at the old gray fox．

52
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“伙计，”迪肯和善地解释，“我并不是怀疑你带来的消息不属实，就算我听到哈维梅尔亲自对你说了，我也会像刚才那样做，因为只有这样才能验证是不是有人像哈维梅尔一样买入了股票。第一个1万股卖得很容易，这说明不了什么，可第二个也卖了，股价还在上涨，2万股都这样被吸走了，说明确实有人想统统收入囊中。就这而言，谁买的并不是很重要，所以我平了以后，又买了1万股，到现在为止你提供的消息都是好消息。”

52
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“My friend，”the deacon explained kindly，“I did not doubt that you were telling me the truth as you saw it．But even if I had heard H．O．Havemeyer tell you himself，I still would have acted as I did．For there was only one way to find out if anybody was buying the stock in the way you said H．O．Havemeyer and his friends were buying it，and that was to do what I did．The first ten thousand shares went fairly easily．It was not quite conclusive．But the second ten thousand was absorbed by a market that did not stop rising．The way the twenty thousand shares were taken by somebody proved to me that somebody was in truth willing to take all the stock that was offered．It doesn’t particularly matter at this point who that particular somebody may be．So I have covered my shorts and am long ten thousand shares，and I think that your information was good as far as it went．”

53
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“有多好？”送信人问。

53
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“And how far does it go？”asked the tipster．

54
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“你会得到500股，价格是那1万股的均价。”迪肯说，“再见，伙计，下次镇定些。”

54
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“You have five hundred shares in this office at the average price of the ten thousand shares，”said the deacon．“Good day，my friend．Be calm the next time．”

55
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“好的，迪肯。”他说，“你卖出你的股票的时候也帮我卖掉吧，我比你知道的少多了。”

55
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“Say，deacon，”said the tipster，“won’t you please sell mine when you sell yours？I don’t know as much as I thought I did．”

56
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道理就是这样，所以我从来不会买便宜的股票。当然我总是设法很有效地买进，以便协助我所操作的方向。至于卖股票嘛，很明显，只有有人愿意买的时候，你才能卖掉。

56
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That’s the theory．That is why I never buy stocks cheap．Of course I always try to buy effectively—in such a way as to help my side of the market．When it comes to selling stocks，it is plain that nobody can sell unless somebody wants those stocks．

57
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假如你玩的是个大手笔，就得随时记住这一点，要先细察情势，再认真做好计划，最后才去实行。你如果握有很多头寸，并且有很大的浮动利润，就不能随便卖掉。你不能指望在股市中卖掉5万股跟卖掉100股一样简单，只有等到市场可以承接了，才是到了考虑必须卖出的时候。机会来了，就要抓住，而机会需要耐心等待，这是规则。必须等到可以卖的时候卖，而不是你想卖的时候卖。想知道什么时候才是最合适的时机，就要学会观察和尝试。想知道你想卖的股票在股市上什么时候能被吸收，这可没什么秘诀。但是，要开始采取行动时，你必须确定行情特别好，不然你贸然猛进是非常不明智的。请记住，股价不会有高到令你没法买进的时候，也不会低到令你没法卖出的时候。不过在第一笔做完后，除非第一笔有利润，否则别做第二笔。要耐心等，细心看。行情记录会为你提供是否可以开始去做的时机，在合适的时候行动对很多事情都非常重要。我花了很多年才明白这一点，与此同时还花了成千上万美元。

57
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If you operate on a large scale you will have to bear that in mind all the time．A man studies conditions，plans his operations carefully and proceeds to act．He swings a pretty fair line and he accumulates a big profit—on paper．Well，that man can’t sell at will．You can’t expect the market to absorb fifty thousand shares of one stock as easily as it does one hundred．He will have to wait until he has a market there to take it．There comes the time when he thinks the requisite buying power is there．When that opportunity comes he must seize it．As a rule he will have been waiting for it．He has to sell when he can，not when he wants to．To learn the time，he has to watch and test．It is no trick to tell when the market can take what you give it．But in starting a movement it is unwise to take on your full line unless you are convinced that conditions are exactly right．Remember that stocks are never too high for you to begin buying or too low to begin selling．But after the initial transaction，don’t make a second unless the first shows you a profit．Wait and watch．That is where your tape reading comes in—to enable you to decide as to the proper time for beginning．Much depends upon beginning at exactly the right time．It took me years to realize the importance of this．It also cost me some hundreds of thousands of dollars．

58
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我不希望让人们觉得我是让大家持续加码。当然了，你加码可以赚到不加码赚不到的大钱，可我要说的是，如果有人想买500股，他不是在投机，就不应该一次性买进；如果只是赌一把，我只会建议他别赌。

58
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I don’t mean to be understood as advising persistent pyramiding．A man can pyramid and make big money that he couldn’t make if he didn’t pyramid；of course．But what I meant to say was this：Suppose a man’s line is five hundred shares of stock．I say that he ought not to buy it all at once；not if he is speculating．If he is merely gambling the only advice I have to give him is，don’t！

59
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如果他买了100股，而且立刻赔了，就不该继续买，而该立即认识到错误，认识到至少是暂时出现了错误。

59
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Suppose he buys his first hundred，and that promptly shows him a loss．Why should he go to work and get more stock？He ought to see at once that he is in wrong；at least temporarily．

序号 英文/音标 中文解释 更多操作

grind

[ɡraɪnd]

v.磨;压迫;碾碎;磨得吱吱响;逐渐停顿

lazy

[’leɪzi]

adj.懒惰的;懒散的

bearish

[’beərɪʃ]

adj.如熊一样笨拙的;粗暴的;(股票)行情看跌的

bullish

[’bʊlɪʃ]

adj.似牡牛的;看涨的;上扬的;乐观的

Deacon

[’diːkən]

n.(教会的)执事;助祭;受训准备做牧师者

thwart

[θwɔːt]

n.(划艇上划手的)坐板; v.反对;阻碍

meditative

[’medɪtətɪv]

adj.沉思的;冥想的;善於思考的

deacon

[’diːkən]

n.(教会的)执事;助祭;受训准备做牧师者

tariff

[’tærɪf]

n.关税

spectacle

[’spektəkl]

n.景象;场面;奇观;壮观;公开展示;表相，假相

scoop

[skuːp]

n.铲子;勺;舀取;穴;独家新闻

tipster

[’tɪpstə(r)]

n.(提供赛马或股票等投机消息的)情报贩子;密报者

bringer

[brɪŋ]

n.带来者;提供者

adjoin

[ə’dʒɔɪn]

v.邻接;毗连

Frank

[fræŋk]

a. 坦白；率直;

furious

[’fjʊəriəs]

adj.狂怒的;猛烈的

ticker

[’tɪkə(r)]

n.滴答作响的东西;股票行情自动收录器; 表;心脏

nickel

[’nɪkl]

n.镍;镍币;五分镍币

bitterly

[’bɪtəli]

adv.残酷地;痛苦地

grunt

[ɡrʌnt]

v.咕哝;(猪等)打呼噜

kindly

[’kaɪndli]

adj.和蔼的;温和的;爽快的

unwise

[ˌʌn’waɪz]

adj.不明智的;愚笨的

gamble

[’ɡæmbl]

v.赌博;冒险;孤注一掷

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